Recently, the price of polyester bottle flakes has been in a stalemate for a long time. At the beginning of June, the price of polyester bottle flakes was 5,550 yuan/ton. As of June 30, the price of polyester bottle flakes was still 5,550 yuan/ton. Although prices fluctuated during the month, they were mainly consolidated, so the price rose or fell to zero within one month, and the price was very stable.
But its profits are surprisingly huge. What is going on?
Since February, PTA and ethylene glycol have plummeted trend. As of now, the price of PTA remains at 3,600 yuan/ton. In terms of ethylene glycol, the decline has also been very fierce, approaching historical lows and only remaining on the edge of 3,500 yuan/ton. Under the collapse of cost, the price of polyester bottle flakes has not fallen as sharply as the price of raw materials, thus giving polyester bottle flakes a larger profit margin.
Although polyester bottle flakes are highly profitable, However, production and sales are not satisfactory. In June, the market situation of polyester bottle flakes remained light, and a cautious wait-and-see atmosphere prevailed. The market demand for polyester bottle flakes is weakening, and the purchase volume and frequency of terminal beverage industry have reduced.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics: As of May 2020, China’s soft drink production has dropped significantly compared with the same period last year. The cumulative output of soft drinks from January to May 2020 was 59.99 million tons, a decrease of 4.735 million tons or 7.32% compared with the same period last year.
Affected by the epidemic this year, the national consumption intensity All have declined, and beverages are not a necessity, so it is natural that their consumption intensity has declined. Soft drink terminal consumption areas, such as traditional conferences and tourism, have all been significantly affected by the epidemic. In addition, Guangdong Province, as a major soft drink production province, has not yet returned to the same period last year due to weather conditions this year. Both aspects have caused the demand for polyester bottle flakes to decline and production and sales to be light.
Positive factors:
Entering July, it can be said that the polyester bottle flake market will be in the peak season of the industry, and production and sales are expected to increase. Once the weather gets hot, the demand for beverages will rise, which will inevitably drive a round of production and sales of polyester bottle flakes. In addition, polyester bottle flakes are oversold, so it is not ruled out that there will be a wave of oversold during the peak season.
In terms of raw materials, the crude oil production reduction period has been extended, and measures have been taken to ensure that some Countries that have failed to fully achieve their production reduction targets within months will make compensation, and oil prices may continue to rise in the short term. Therefore, the drop resistance of polyester raw materials will increase, so the price of polyester bottle flakes is unlikely to fall, or is expected to rise.
Bad factors:
Although polyester bottle flakes may usher in a peak season, there are still negative factors. The biggest negative factor is the concern caused by the recurrence of the second epidemic. Once a second epidemic breaks out, the beverage industry is more likely to be affected, and terminal consumer demand is still likely to decline during the peak season. In addition, the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year has not subsided, and the demand for summer beverages this year may not be as good as the same period last year.
In addition, the supply of polyester bottle flakes will also affect its sales. Recently, the market load of polyester bottle flakes is around 71%, and the effective start-up is around 75%. The current supply of bottle flakes is relatively abundant, so downstream speculation is not high. At present, Yisheng’s new devices have begun to put into production one after another; the Anyang Longyu device is expected to restart. In other words, as some devices are put into production, the supply of polyester bottle flakes will gradually increase in the future, and high-load operations will continue to be maintained in terms of construction. If there are no special factors to stimulate it, it will be difficult to drive downstream speculation.
In short, the later trend of polyester bottle flakes is currently more obviously affected by the trend of crude oil prices. Cost support is expected to be stronger, and demand is also expected to pick up. Polyester bottle flakes are expected to be stronger next month.
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