Last week, stimulated by the strong rebound in the crude oil market, chemical products were booming, driving the polyester product polyester filament market to also rise continuously. Not only the price It has risen for the fourth consecutive day, and production and sales have exceeded 100 for many days.
But this week, the polyester market has dropped significantly. Although prices have mostly remained stable, production and sales in recent days have been quite different from last week.
We all know that the global epidemic has not yet been controlled Although various countries have begun to gradually implement economic unblocking measures, the real demand has not yet recovered. The early demand-side release of polyester filament basically relied on the release of favorable factors from the upstream raw material end, thus stimulating textile companies to passively bargain for replenishment. Now that the benefits have been released, crude oil prices have stabilized and there has been no further surge, and the downstream weaving market has not reversed significantly. Therefore, polyester yarn has begun to return to its normal fundamentals.
Lack of positive stimulus, polyester prices remain stable
Recently On the two days, although the production and sales of polyester yarns continued to be sluggish, prices remained stable, and the focus of manufacturers’ quotations did not change significantly. Specifically, the quotation of polyester filament FDY150D is around 6,270 yuan/ton, the quotation for POY150D is around 5,425 yuan/ton, and the quotation for DTY150D is concentrated at around 7,100 yuan/ton.
Compared with the same period in April, the current polyester price can be said to be It has broken away from the label of “historically low price”, but the market currently lacks strong positive stimulation and it is difficult to provide strong price support for polyester filament.
For the polyester market , Only the support of upstream costs and the release of terminal demand can drive the recovery of the industrial chain. But recently, the upstream and downstream have begun to feel discouraged again…
Cost support collapse: PTA is difficult to destock, and ethylene glycol inventory has reached a new high for the year
PTA and ethylene glycol are the most important raw materials for polyester filament, and their price fluctuations have played a certain role in driving the trend of the polyester market.
PTA, as of the 22nd, PTA social inventory was around 2.32 million tons, still at a relatively high level. At the same time, the load of PTA has recently dropped to about 80%. While the load is decreasing, the effect of PTA destocking is still not obvious. It can be seen that the current demand for downstream polyester is not strong, so in the future, there is a greater risk of falling in PTA prices due to the stimulation of difficulties in crude oil and equipment.
In terms of ethylene glycol, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China once again hit a new high in the new year! As of the 22nd, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China rose to around 1.29 million tons. Some time ago, ethylene glycol East China ports were congested with ships, and the overall warehousing pace slowed down. In addition, the domestic operating rate of ethylene glycol has remained at a relatively low level, so the price center of gravity has been significantly supported. However, in recent days, ethylene glycol has been concentrated in Hong Kong, and the demand for downstream polyester is not strong. High inventory consumption is slow. If the demand for downstream polyester remains weak in the later period, the price of ethylene glycol will inevitably drop due to the suppression of high inventory. With the cost of PTA and ethylene glycol loosening, the probability of polyester filament prices falling will increase.
End demand recovery is slow: the global apparel industry is experiencing the shock wave of the epidemic
Screen.
Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic that is raging around the world, global trade has shrunk significantly, which in turn has led to a sharp drop in global demand for transportation and logistics services. As the world’s largest freight forwarding company, the international transportation industry has the most intuitive feeling for the impact of the epidemic.
At the same time, the clothing industry has been hearing news of closures recently. Some well-known big brands have even suffered disaster and embarked on the road to bankruptcy.
On May 4, the well-known American clothing brand J.Crew filed for bankruptcy protection, becoming the first national retailer to file for bankruptcy protection since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States.
On May 10, StageStores, an American department store operator founded in 1992, announced that it had officially filed for bankruptcy protection.
On May 19, Canadian fashion retail group Reitmans announced that it had applied for bankruptcy protection to the Quebec Superior Court…
According to reports, the famous Canadian down brand “Canada Goose” has laid off about 250 people as the new crown epidemic has reduced demand for high-end fur-edge jackets.
It’s far more than that. The clothing and department store industries in more other countries are also experiencing the impact of the epidemic.
Beginning in March, as the overseas epidemic continued to spread, temporary cancellations or indefinite postponements of orders were common, and textile foreign trade orders were almost suspended. In addition, domestic trade demand has also slumped, and textiles have also entered the “ice age”. The inventory of gray fabrics in weaving enterprises has soared beyond last year’s highest level, and gray fabrics have launched a chaotic price war. In desperation, weaving companies have reduced production and burden, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to around 60%.
After May, with the surge in crude oil at the beginning of the market leading to a “good start” in polyester prices, weaving manufacturers became more motivated to produce, and the market sales were slightly lower than in the previous period. Things have improved, and gray fabric inventories have also begun to gradually decline. At the same time, as European and American countries begin to resume work and production one after another, the textile industry seems to be ushering in a dawn. However, looking at the weakening economy and demand caused by the epidemic, the global textile and apparel industry has suffered a critical blow, and companies have gone bankrupt one after another. It is still difficult for demand to improve for a while. The textile industry has always been on two legs: domestic and foreign trade. If foreign trade does not go well, domestic trade will be even more difficult to describe.
In the current situation, the situation of polyester filament yarn is still “under attack”, and the market still depends on the favorable release of the cost side and the stimulation of the news. It is still very difficult to change the current situation through substantial terminal needs. Terminal demand has not yet recovered, especially foreign trade export orders. As an important opportunity to reverse the polyester and textile industry, there has not yet been an obvious concentrated release. In addition, the traditional off-season is about to enter, and the textile market will continue to be under pressure. For polyester filament, there is no demand and the price is less likely to “break through”, and there is even a greater risk of falling.
</p
