On Friday, May 22, oil prices fell sharply again, with U.S. oil falling 9% and Brent oil falling more than 7%.
As of midday trading in Asia, WTI crude oil fell 7.0% to US$31.54 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 5% to US$34.25. /bucket.
Affected by the collapse of international oil prices, polyester Raw material prices began to fall sharply.
PTA, as of the close of trading at 15:00 on May 22, the closing price of the main 2009 contract of PTA futures was 3598 points, a decrease of 122 points from the previous trading day. 3.28%.
As for ethylene glycol, as of the close at 15:00 on May 22, the closing price of the main 2009 contract of ethylene glycol futures was 3704 points. , down 87 points or 2.29% from the previous trading day.
Crude oil is soaring, “up, up, up “The beginning of crude oil”
In terms of crude oil, starting from mid-May, the decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories and production cuts by major oil-producing countries have helped ease concerns about oversupply and offset the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic. Worried about the economic impact, international oil prices began to rise sharply. As of Thursday’s close, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was 33.92 yuan/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was 36.06 US dollars/barrel. Within a week, The increases were more than 10%.
The rise in crude oil has also led to price increases in the downstream polyester industry chain. PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester filaments of various specifications have all increased to varying degrees.
As the price of polyester raw materials continues to rise, the buying momentum in the downstream weaving market has also been affected. Driven by this, polyester production and sales experienced a rare long-term outbreak.
Affected by this, some weaving companies have also begun The Taihu Lake Shade Cloth and Home Textile Chamber of Commerce issued a price increase proposal on May 21, advocating that all member companies increase the price of gray fabrics by 0.5-1 yuan/meter.
Get rid of low prices and start to “break through”
Although the market was not good during the epidemic, the textile industry The prosperity level has been hit to a low point, but with the fluctuations in some markets, there will occasionally be situations where raw material prices rise, weaving companies restock, and production and sales briefly explode. However, this situation often only lasts for a day or two, and then the market resumes. Back to ordinary.
But this time the situation is different. Whether it is the increase in raw material prices or the outbreak of polyester production and sales, they have extended from last week to this week. The increase also exceeded textile people’s original expectations.
This may be due to the continued rise in international crude oil prices, but it is not just because of oil prices.
Starting from March this year, during the new crown epidemic Under the influence of the price war between oil-producing countries, crude oil prices began to plummet. By April, there was even a negative oil price for the first time in history.
Polyester raw material prices have also begun to fall below historical lows under the influence of oil prices, and because demand has not improved, polyester raw material prices have continued to remain low.
For polyester companies, the low price of raw materials is not conducive to the production and operation of polyester companies, both in terms of profits and destocking. . Therefore, starting from April, whenever there is a disturbance in the market, the polyester market will immediately react and start to rise, but this rise has always lacked continuity.
The resumption of work and production in Europe and the United States has driven the continued recovery of international oil prices. The polyester market has also taken advantage of this opportunity to break through the “low price trap”. But as international oil prices, the basis of this round of price increases, began to fall, this round of “price breakthrough” may also come to an end.
Encountered a bottleneck,It is difficult to raise demand
Whether prices can rise, oil prices may be an important factor, but the most important thing is terminal demand. However, the recent recovery in demand has encountered two problems bottleneck.
The first bottleneck is foreign trade. my country’s textiles have always been a “walking on two legs” situation of domestic trade and foreign trade, but this year’s sudden epidemic has dealt a very heavy blow to these two aspects.
Since May, as the domestic epidemic has been basically controlled, some low-risk areas have begun to take off masks, and the domestic trade market has recovered rapidly; while foreign trade is indeed another In this situation, even if European and American countries begin to resume work and production, the habit of early consumption will allow European and American consumers to spend more on daily necessities. For the clothing industry, it will take some time to recover.
The second bottleneck is time. It is now late May. According to the rules of previous years, orders for spring and summer fabrics have basically come to an end, and the market is about to enter the off-season. As time comes to September and October, autumn and winter fabrics begin to occupy the market, and the market will become hot again. The consumption of textiles has a strong seasonal pattern. After the season has passed, it is difficult to have “retaliatory consumption” after that. Therefore, when the market enters the off-season, it is difficult for demand to rise in a short period of time.
In the face of such market demand, once the “breath” of rising oil prices leaks, it will be difficult for the price of polyester products to continue to rise. .
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