In early May, with the news of the resumption of work and production in Europe and the United States, international oil prices began to surge. Driven by the sharp increase in international oil prices, prices of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in the polyester market have almost all increased.
Due to the increase in prices of polyester raw materials, some weaving companies have chosen to buy more than usual More ingredients.
Mr. Shen, the head of a large home textile fabric company, said that before the price increase of raw materials in early May, they stocked up on raw materials for nearly a month at a time. The reason is also very simple. Anyway, they can maintain normalcy. Silk is always used in production, and now the price is so low. If you buy more before the price goes up, the risk is relatively small.
However, more weaving companies still choose the purchase strategy of purchasing raw materials for immediate use.
Manager Wang, the person in charge of a weaving company that specializes in imitation silk, said that until there are really more orders in hand, he will basically not consider changing the buy-and-use strategy.
The strategies of weaving companies are also well reflected in the production and sales of polyester filament in polyester factories. It can be seen that after entering May, after the wave of production and sales in early May, polyester filament Sales have returned to their original lows.
As polyester production and sales return to flatness, polyester prices have returned to a slow decline. The situation has almost fallen back to the previous increase, seeming to form a cycle.
However, with the international oil price rising 9% on May 14, a new trend emerged in the market. Wheel changes. The surge in oil prices has driven up the price of PTA ethylene glycol. As of the close on the 15th, ethylene glycol futures rose by 2.92% to 3731 points, and PTA futures rose by 3.23% to 3576 points.
With the price of polyester raw materials rising sharply, the production and sales of polyester yarn have reached nearly 200%. A new round of market conditions has arrived. Can this round of market conditions continue? Have weaving companies received orders during this period?
Long drought brings good rain ! The order is finally there
Oil prices have risen, and polyester manufacturers have spread rumors of price increases. Weaving companies have taken advantage of the price increase to buy raw materials, and traders have placed orders because they saw the price increase of raw materials. This is how a wave of market conditions emerged.
However, in the face of possible price increases, will weaving companies continue to buy it? Do weaving companies have the ability to buy it? In the final analysis, it still depends on the recovery of market demand.
In terms of operating rate, after entering May, the operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased from 65% to about 70%. The operating rate has increased, and the demand for polyester raw materials has naturally increased. will increase.
The inventory of gray fabrics in weaving enterprises has also gradually decreased, and has dropped by 2 days from the highest point in late April. Around 40 days of gray fabric inventory is now available.
Manager Shi, the person in charge of a company that produces Oxford cloth, said: “We originally planned to have a Labor Day holiday in May. We later intensified production reduction efforts, but we did not expect that when raw material prices rose in early May and several new orders were received, the original production reduction plan was naturally shelved.”
Weaving enterprises The increase in the number of orders received in May is not an exception. Manager Zhou, the person in charge of an air-jet weaving manufacturer, also said: “I recently received orders for 100,000 meters of Tencel and some cotton fabrics, although they are still much worse than the previous two years. , but compared with March and April, the situation in May is really much better.”
It can be said that after entering May, the textile market finally has a bit of a traditional peak season. Traders began to move, and weaving companies finally received long-awaited orders. Under such circumstances, in the face of rising raw material prices, Boss Bu also has the strength to buy into it.
Europe and the United States begin to unblock , the recovery is indeed domestic demand
As of May 15, the number of overseas confirmed cases of COVID-19 has exceeded 4.43 million. However, under such circumstances, European and American countries have gradually begun to resume work. . Foreign countries have begun to resume work despite the epidemic. Is this the direct reason for the improvement in orders in the market? At first, the editor thought so too, but after some investigation, I found that this does not seem to be the case.
Manager Sun runs a textile trading company. Since this year, his customer structure has changedA big change. In previous years, the company’s orders were composed of domestic trade accounting for 20% and foreign trade accounting for 80%. However, since the outbreak this year, many foreign customers have directly canceled their orders. Some customers initially said that the orders were postponed, but after the delay, the orders were gone. The order situation started to improve in May, but in the end, all the orders received were domestic trade orders and not a single foreign order.
Another company that specializes in the production and sales of acetate fabrics, modal and other high-end imitation silk fabrics encountered this The situation is similar. He said that he has recently received a lot of orders for matte SPH and card-breaking products, but almost all of them are domestic sales, accounting for more than 80% of the total orders.
It can be seen that the successive resumption of work and production in European and American countries has not improved foreign trade orders. On the contrary, the domestic trade market has picked up significantly in the near future. The increase in domestic demand has given the textile industry that was originally “floating in the air” a leg of support, but the other leg called “foreign trade” will be difficult to recover for a while.
What happened to the foreign trade order
On the one hand, there are political reasons.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic, Western countries led by the United States have frequently blamed China. On May 14, local time, Trump even said in an interview with the media that he would “completely break up with China.” “Break off diplomatic relations”, and this attitude is also reflected in trade.
Last week, the BYD mask incident aroused widespread attention on the Internet. Although BYD later refuted the rumors and said that it had not caused any losses, it is undeniable that the United States did set up measures to export masks. corresponding standard barriers. In response, the Yiwu Commerce Bureau also issued emergency measures to suspend the export of new coronavirus testing reagents, medical masks, medical protective clothing, ventilators, infrared thermometers and other medical supplies and non-medical masks through market procurement trade.
It can be said that China has become “other people’s children” because of its effective epidemic prevention measures. The hostility of Western countries towards China is unprecedentedly high. It is not surprising that it makes some small moves in the trade process. , foreign trade risks have been sharply reduced.
On the other hand, it is simply due to insufficient demand.
Because Western countries have the habit of spending in advance, the savings in their hands are far less than the amount of credit card bills. During the period of losing their jobs due to the epidemic, it is even difficult to maintain normal survival. became a problem.
Even if work and production resume and people have income again, the first thing they do after getting income is to pay off the credit card bills they owed before and buy food, daily necessities and other urgently needed products. Not to buy clothes.
Trader Manager Shen predicts that even if the resumption of work in European and American countries can continue despite the epidemic, the recovery of foreign trade clothing consumption will have to wait at least two months, and this is relatively optimistic. estimate.
Postscript
The time has come to mid-May. According to the rules of previous years, it is now the end of the traditional peak season in the first half of the year. The current order situation has indeed improved, but it is not foreign trade that has improved as imagined, but domestic demand.
As the domestic epidemic begins to be gradually controlled, domestic trade demand has begun to pick up rapidly, but the recovery of foreign trade will take time. Therefore, it will still be difficult for the textile market to get rid of the situation of “walking on one leg” in the future. Without getting rid of this situation, the so-called market may just cycle round after round.
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