On April 2, crude oil bulls suddenly broke out, with U.S. oil rising by more than 30% and Brent oil rising by more than 45%. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $5.01 to close at $25.32 per barrel, an increase of 24.67%, setting a new record for the largest increase in history set on March 19 this year. London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose $5.20 to close at $29.94 a barrel, an increase of 21.02%.
Driven by international oil prices, polyester raw material prices have also begun to rebound.
In terms of PTA, the final closing price of the main PTA futures 2009 contract on April 3 was 3,462 points, an increase of 116 points or 3.47% from the previous trading day.
In terms of ethylene glycol, the main ethylene glycol futures 2005 contract finally closed on April 3 The price was quoted at 3337 points, an increase of 133 points or 4.15% from the previous trading day.
In terms of polyester filament, on April 3, the price of polyester filament from a major manufacturer in Tongxiang Prices of polyester yarn POY and FDY from a major major factory in Shengze, Jiangsu rose by 200-300 yuan/ton. Overall, most polyester yarn specifications increased by 100-300 yuan/ton.
In terms of polyester production and sales, the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continues to be hot today. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are 80%-120%, and the production and sales of some promotional factories can reach 200-300. %.
In fact, for the rise in crude oil prices, the market There were similar expectations this morning. The editor wrote in his previous article “Plummeted 60%! International oil prices hit a new low in 18 years! Trump and Putin can’t sit still! Will the inflection point of polyester raw materials come? “It has already been predicted.
On March 30, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell several times during the session. to below US$20 per barrel, with a minimum of US$19.27 per barrel, the lowest level since 2002. The reason why crude oil prices have fallen so low is that the current low price of crude oil is the result of the dual negative effects of the price war between oil-producing countries and the international epidemic. As long as one of the links is loose, such a low price situation will be very serious. It is difficult to maintain, and this round of rising oil prices is precisely because the balance of low crude oil prices has been broken.
On the one hand, when the price of crude oil fell to close to US$20/barrel, except for a few such as Saudi Arabia With the exception of several countries, this price has exceeded the production cost of crude oil in most countries, including shale oil in the United States. Russia uses crude oil as an important tool for earning foreign exchange, and low oil prices are also detrimental to them. When the two major powers, the United States and Russia, share common interests in oil prices, the wishes of other oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia become less important.
On the other hand, in the past half month or so, the price of crude oil has continued to bottom out, and the market is bullish. Everyone generally believes that oil prices will rebound, but they don’t know when they will rebound. , so when Trump called Russia and Saudi Arabia respectively, the market saw bullish funds working together, and finally set a new record for the largest increase in crude oil history.
Although international oil prices have experienced an unprecedented surge and polyester raw materials are also booming, we must also see that under the influence of many negative factors, the price of polyester filament has declined. It is very difficult to keep rising for a long time.
The inventory continues to accumulate, and polyester inventory reaches the sky p>
Since 2019, polyester inventory has become a big problem plaguing polyester companies. Moreover, due to the impact of the epidemic, the start of work of weaving enterprises has been delayed this year, and the resumption of work has slowed down, resulting in further accumulation of polyester inventory.
According to statistics from China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 33-44 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is at 27-34 days. FDY inventory is around 28-35 days, while DTY inventory is around 33-44 days.
Under the unprecedented inventory pressure of polyester factories, when the price of polyester filament rises to a certain level, the upward trend is very likely to be suppressed by the impact of inventory.
As the epidemic spreads, weaving companies began to take holidays
The global epidemic is spreading. The latest statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States on the 2nd show that the total number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide exceeds 1 million, and the number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeds 200,000.�The number of confirmed cases in Spain, Italy and other countries has also exceeded 100,000.
Affected by the epidemic, China’s textile foreign trade exports have almost stagnated. According to an industry survey report in Keqiao, 78.4% of local textile companies said that orders are decreasing, and 64.8% of them Reflects that the existing order was canceled by the customer.
The obstruction of foreign trade exports has also been reflected in the weaving market. Judging from the situation visited, many weaving companies have changed from the original two shifts to the current three shifts. Some companies even choose to suspend production and take a holiday for a period of time, waiting for the market to improve in the future before resuming production.
The operating rate of weaving enterprises has dropped, and the demand for polyester filament has also dropped. Everyone does not buy into the increase in polyester prices, so the momentum of price increases will naturally It is difficult to continue.
Bulls and shorts are intertwined, cloth bosses, please be careful when stocking up
In the short term, the price of polyester filament may continue to rise. On the one hand, this is because the continued surge in crude oil prices will most likely drive up the price of polyester raw materials; on the other hand, after a long period of price decline, the price of polyester filament has fallen to a very low position. Ester manufacturers have a very strong willingness to raise prices.
But in the long term, the future prospects of polyester filament are still unclear. Under the dual pressure of polyester inventory and the global fermentation of the epidemic, it is difficult for downstream weaving companies to stock up on a large scale for a long time as they have in the past few years.
For weaving enterprises, if there is no obvious pressure on funds, purchasing raw materials now is indeed an option, but at the same time we must also see that it is difficult to judge the future trend of oil prices. Next The price of polyester raw materials may fluctuate for a long time. Given the poor overall market conditions this year, we need to think twice before stocking up on large-scale raw materials.
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