Recently, the raw material market seems to be “turbulent” again!
On the evening of April 2, a tweet from Trump violently pushed up international oil prices. Brent crude oil once soared 40% to $36/barrel, and WTI crude oil also rose. rose more than 30%. Marketers jokingly said: One operation is as fierce as a tiger, and the rise and fall depend entirely on Trump!
International oil prices continued to surge on the 3rd, with NYMEX crude oil rising 14.53%, standing above the US$29/barrel mark. This week’s cumulative rose 34.82%, the largest weekly increase in history; ICE Brent oil rose 15.73% to US$34.65 per barrel.
For a time, the price of bulk textile raw materials also rebounded across the board:
Polyester filament has also ushered in long-lost market conditions:
For two consecutive days, the production and sales of polyester filament exceeded 100 , ending the “tragic situation” that has been around 50% since the resumption of work. On the 3rd, some major mainstream manufacturers generally raised their quotations by 100-300 yuan/ton.
A successful “counterattack drama”! Why? Because the current price of polyester filament has fallen to a ten-year low!
The average price of POY150D is 4,850 yuan/ton, the average price of FDY150D is 5,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of DTY150D is 6,800 yuan/ton, down 2,250 yuan/ton and 2,050 yuan respectively from the beginning of the year. / ton, 2,750 yuan / ton, FDY fell nearly 40%.
Such an exciting price makes the textile boss feel turbulent. Is it the best time to buy at the bottom? The editor wants to say: Living is more important than anything else! After all, the current situation of downstream manufacturers is like this…
A boss in the fabric trading industry told the editor that many factories do both foreign trade orders and domestic orders. Most of the clothing trading companies he contacted served customers in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea. “The order we just made has not yet been shipped. The customer in Japan canceled the order. We can only continue to negotiate to minimize the loss. It is estimated that the subsequent price concession is unavoidable!”
The textile industry that “depends on the weather” is suffering from “natural disasters”. Every cancellation of an order falls on an individual’s head, which is like a big mountain!
The “order shortage” is coming!
Judging from previous visits and surveys by China Silk City Network, most companies have orders on hand for about one month after resuming work, and many of them were orders received years ago.
After mid-March, new orders in the market have been unsatisfactory and some textile companies have not opened orders for a week.
In April, it is reported that many weaving companies have completed the execution of their previous orders on hand and started the “no order mode”, or the orders on hand were completed in mid-April and then started the “no order mode”. In addition to the delay in time, it feels like everyone is gradually converging on the end of “out of orders”, and there is a lack of orders in the market. According to interviews and surveys, many textile bosses have reported that the market has been very quiet recently, with sampling and price inquiries significantly reduced.
“We have just finished the orders we received in March, and there are currently no orders for April. Judging from the foreign epidemic situation, it is estimated that the order situation will not improve significantly in May. In the first half of the year, we have been waiting for a moderate epidemic. Passed!” Mr. Chen, the foreign trade boss said.
Indeed, judging from the current market situation, the “order shortage” that the foreign trade boss was worried about has already arrived.
Holidays, rotations, salary cuts…
Into April, because The market is not good, and many companies are taking holidays, cutting wages, and taking shifts. It is reported that many fabric manufacturers who have already accumulated one month of inventory are taking holidays more and more frequently.
“Many sales departments around me have said that they will have a week-long holiday during the Qingming Festival. We have not received notice for how many days we will be closed, but we will definitely have a holiday.” said a simulated silk salesperson.
It is understood that in April, the operating rates of major clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have loosened up, and the overall operating rates have remained at about 60-70%. Among them, the operating rates of circular knitting machines and warp knitting machines are not as good as water-jet looms; Some relatively low-end circular knitting machine manufacturers are only open at 20% capacity, and some have even begun to take holidays.
Judging from the trend chart of loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions in recent years, the “gold, three, and silver” markets in previous years were all open. To engage in production at full power, the operating rate of water-jet looms can be increased to about 80-90%. Most of the weaving mills are in full operation. However, many weaving mills currently dare not operate at full capacity, especially in northern Jiangsu in the past two years. Textile bosses who are buying land and building factories are even more “stressed”. Many textile bosses have chosen to take vacations and take turns to take vacations. In some cases, the operating capacity has dropped to 50% or below. The market is full of pessimism.
Another foreign trade salesperson also complained to the editor: “A cabinet just came out yesterday! This is the only order we have had since we resumed work. Next, we have to drink the northwest wind again and drive there every day. �I can’t receive orders during the first shift, and I’m wasting gas money. I don’t know how I’m going to survive this year! ”
Not only are the salesmen calculating their own income and expenses, but the textile bosses are also working hard to “save expenditures”!
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Recently, a textile company issued the latest notice: Starting from April 1, 2020, all company personnel will begin to adopt a rotating rest work system (half a month on, half a month off, and half a month off). Half a month’s guaranteed salary will be paid every month, and no guaranteed salary will be paid for half a month’s rest); the wages of all supervisors and above and office staff will be paid at a 40% discount, and will be paid normally after the epidemic situation improves!
In the days when there were orders in the early days, everyone returned to work as quickly as possible. News of a wage increase for front-line workers also came from the market. At present, the wages of ordinary front-line workers have increased. At 6,000-8,000 yuan/month, the monthly income of an insured worker is nearly 10,000 yuan, which has become a large expense for textile bosses.
Faced with this sudden epidemic, textile bosses can only reduce their income through rotational leave and layoffs. This expense. According to a salesperson, in the past years, the annual income of selling gray fabrics was more than 100,000 yuan, but now he only gets a basic salary of more than 2,000 yuan per month. In addition, some business owners said that they are planning to implement rotating holidays. Save expenses and reduce the risk of liquidation.
Currently, the entire textile industry is experiencing the “weakest peak season in history.” As the market can Without execution of orders, most companies will enter a state of “not having enough to eat”. In addition to cutting costs, textile bosses must also consider safety factors. Although the current raw material prices have fallen to new lows, we have to pay attention to other factors: Global The economy is in recession, overseas epidemics are still intensifying, and the domestic market is slowly recovering. Your customers may be facing the crisis of bankruptcy, and there is a risk of bad debts in the early payments owed. In this era of frequent “black swans”, it is important to invest a large amount of your funds It is not a wise move to bet on raw materials. You can make reasonable replenishment according to your own production needs! After all, in 2020, living is more important than anything else!
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