In recent days, the global epidemic situation has become increasingly severe. The number of confirmed cases in South Korea exceeds 2,000, the vice president of Iran is diagnosed, Italy has 250 new cases in one day, and the Netherlands and Northern Ireland have confirmed their first cases of new coronary pneumonia…
Under the influence of the intensifying epidemic, the three major U.S. stock indexes plummeted by more than 4%, and the Dow Jones Index plummeted by 1,191 points again. In the last four trading days, the Dow Jones Index plummeted by 11.13%, losing 3,226 points, and 4 The value of the U.S. stock market evaporated by 33 trillion yuan on the trading day.
International oil prices also began to collapse, falling sharply for five consecutive days, with a cumulative decline of up to 12%. As of the close on February 27, U.S. WTI crude oil April futures closed down $1.53, or 3.16%, at $46.86/barrel, with a maximum of $48.53/barrel and a low of $45.87/barrel; Brent crude oil April futures It closed down US$2.04, or 3.82%, to US$51.38/barrel, with an intraday high of US$53.24/barrel and a low of US$50.94/barrel
Affected by this, the price of polyester raw materials also began to decline at an accelerated pace.
As for PTA, as of the close at 15:00 on February 28, the closing price of the main 2005 contract of PTA futures was 4252 points, a decrease of 96 points or 2.21% from the previous trading day. This is the fifth consecutive day of decline for PTA futures, with a cumulative decline of nearly 300 points in five days.
In terms of polyester filament, the price of polyester filament has also been falling in recent days. Over the past week, polyester filament has The cumulative decline of each product ranges from 100-500 yuan/ton.
The unprecedented epidemic has caused A rare market situation in decades
Before the epidemic spread across the world, it had already had a huge impact in China. The start of business operations across the country was delayed, and textile companies took an unprecedented holiday. This also caused textile workers to face an unprecedented market situation after the start of work.
Enterprises are stuck in a “labor shortage” and resumption of work is slow
Affected by the epidemic, both weaving companies and printing and dyeing finishing companies have fallen into a “labor shortage” this year. Although various places have racked their brains for this, some areas have even adopted “charter flights” and “package charters”. Trains and other methods are used to introduce labor, but compared with the huge labor gap, such methods are still insufficient.
According to the data monitoring of China Silk City Network, the current operating rate of looms in Shengze has only recovered to 40-50%, while the recovery of printing, dyeing and finishing production capacity is even slower.
Polyester raw materials fell, polyester filament “Price has no market”
Due to the low operating rate of looms, polyester filament is currently in the state of “price but no market”, with average production and sales basically maintaining only 2-30% . Due to the extended holiday period, polyester factory inventories have reached a historical high of nearly 38 days. Under the pressure of high inventory, polyester prices have been in a slow decline.
However, international oil prices have begun to “divide” recently, and the prices of polyester raw materials such as PX, PTA, and MEG continue to fall, which is likely to accelerate the decline in polyester filament prices.
The epidemic is spreading globally, and there are doubts in the foreign trade market
As the epidemic gradually spreads abroad, textile people can’t help but wonder whether the future foreign trade market will be affected.
Take Japan and South Korea, which suffered the most severe outbreaks abroad at the beginning of this epidemic, as an example. In 2019, my country’s textile exports to Japan reached 19.9 billion U.S. dollars, which was the largest export to Japan except the European Union, ASEAN, and the United States. The fourth largest textile exporter. The Korean market is smaller than Japan, but from January to June 2019, China also exported US$2.74 billion in textile exports to South Korea.
Once the epidemic is not effectively controlled, the economies of these countries will be hit, and the demand for textiles will naturally be affected. But the exact extent of the impact is still unknown.
Demand exists, but the market is still on the sidelines
As major textile markets across the country gradually open, the demand that was previously pent-up due to the epidemic has begun to be released. Therefore, while the prices of polyester filament and nylon filament continue to fall at this stage, the prices of some conventional products have risen instead of falling.��
On the other hand, because the recovery of printing, dyeing and finishing production capacity is too slow, the biggest problem for cloth bosses at present is that they are not sure about the delivery date of orders. Dare to take.
After the epidemic, everything will be fine!
But everything will turn around!
From SARS in 2003 to this year’s new coronavirus, Academician Zhong Nanshan has always been a “sharp anchor” in the face of such emergencies.
On the 27th, Academician Zhong Nanshan said at a special press conference on epidemic prevention and control at Guangzhou Medical University, “According to our team’s addition of influencing factors based on the traditional model, the country’s strong intervention and After the return peak after the Spring Festival has been eliminated, the predicted peak should be in mid-February close to the end of February. By February 15, the numbers have indeed come down. We are closer to the forecast values of foreign authorities. We are confident that the epidemic will be basically under control by the end of April.”
Academician Zhong Nanshan’s remarks are undoubtedly a “boost in the arm” for the market. I believe that by then, everything will be fine.
It happens to be the peak season, and market demand explodes
In previous years, the textile market prices in the first half of the year tended to start to explode in late March and early April. Before the outbreak of the peak season, most of the work done by cloth bosses was basically for this wave of market conditions. Stock up.
The start-up of weaving enterprises is generally delayed this year. After the start of work, production capacity is not released quickly, so the progress of stocking up will be slower than in the past.
The editor believes that because the epidemic has delayed the “timetable” of the entire society, the traditional peak season in the first half of this year may be slower than in previous years. I believe that it will be academician Zhong Nanshan’s judgment At the end of April, the pent-up market demand was detonated, and the market will definitely get better this year.
The market has received a “boost”
The market Confidence may seem illusory, but for businessmen, it is often visible and tangible. For example, the recent plunge in the stock market and international oil prices is a direct manifestation of the lack of confidence in foreign markets in controlling the epidemic in the future.
While the epidemic is still raging, textile workers have certain doubts whether they are taking orders, stocking up or producing. After all, cash is king at this time, and they are afraid of judging the market. Wrong money is wasted.
The judgment of Academician Zhong Nanshan is undoubtedly a “shot in the arm” for the market. When authoritative people make such judgments, no matter what textile people do next We are all confident. Let alone the foreign trade market, the domestic trade market is at least stable. Traders will become more determined to stock up. After weaving starts, they are not afraid that it will turn into inventory and pile up in the warehouse like last year. The price of polyester filament is also expected to stabilize.
What can’t defeat me can only make me stronger!
When you encounter difficulties, every time you muster the courage to face it and overcome it, it is a test of life.
In the face of this epidemic, the people of China have become one, showing unspeakable cohesion and bursting out with energy never imagined before.
The new coronavirus epidemic is a disaster faced by all Chinese people, but we have not been defeated. Instead, we have concentrated our efforts on major tasks and defeated it with positive means. it.
It is a blessing in disguise. For textile workers, although the epidemic has caused some monetary losses, on the other hand, it has gained a valuable wealth in life.
When you encounter difficulties in doing business in the future, think about now, such a difficult epidemic will be over, and What cannot be defeated?
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