In recent days, cloth bosses in the circle of friends have been busy filling out applications for resumption of work. Work is finally about to resume. Even if the workers in the factory do not come, but The sales department can always open, and the market is finally showing signs of progress.
With the outbreak of the epidemic, the market has pressed the pause button. Some weaving factories have even suspended operations for 2 months. All orders are at a standstill, but it is not just cloth that is anxious. Bosses, the upstream polyester industry is exploding.
Since the downstream weaving market has been shut down for nearly two months, the upstream polyester market is still open during the Spring Festival. Therefore, during this period, the polyester market Inventories have reached near saturation.
PTA inventory exceeds 2 million tons
As of now, PTA social circulation inventory has exceeded 2 million tons, reaching around 2.265 million tons, reaching the highest inventory level in the past four years.
The main reason for the rising PTA inventory is still the continued shutdown of the downstream weaving market. During the Spring Festival, the load of PTA factories remained above 70%, but the load of downstream polyester factories has dropped to about 60%. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, PTA inventory has accumulated.
In the recent period, PTA manufacturers have successively launched maintenance and load reduction plans: Pengwei Petrochemical’s 900,000-ton PTA device is scheduled to be launched in February It will be shut down for maintenance on the 20th; Hanbang Petrochemical’s 1#700,000-ton PTA unit will be overhauled on February 3, and the 2#220,000-ton PTA unit will be overhauled on February 14; Hengli Petrochemical’s 4#2.5 million-ton PTA unit will reduce production to half-negative operation. …..
Device maintenance may alleviate the supply pressure in the PTA market to a certain extent, but in the long run, there will still be PTA in 2020 The new device is planned to be put into production. On the other hand, since all workers in the downstream weaving factory are not in place, the load increase will take some time to recover. During this period, PTA will continue to accumulate inventory. Under the intertwining of long and short markets, the pressure on the PTA market in 2020 will not be small.
Ethylene glycol stocks bottom out
So far , the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China rose to around 730,000 tons, close to the inventory level since September last year.
In fact, starting from the second half of 2019, ethylene glycol has good fundamentals and has been in the destocking channel, and the inventory effect is significant. Low inventory supports ethylene glycol. The market continues to rise. Especially in the two months at the end of the year, the ethylene glycol East China port continued to be closed due to weather conditions, the arrival of ships was slow, the actual arrival volume decreased, and the spot goods available for circulation in the market became tighter. Therefore, in mid-December, the main port of ethylene glycol in East China Inventories dropped to about 394,000 tons, a new low for the year.
But starting before the Spring Festival, due to downstream gathering Many ester factories were undergoing maintenance, and ethylene glycol began to enter the inventory accumulation stage. Later in the year, due to the epidemic, weaving factories were delayed in resuming work, and ethylene glycol continued to accumulate inventory.
At the same time, due to the maintenance of multiple sets of ethylene glycol units, as of last week, the average weekly operating rate of ethylene glycol was around 75%. decrease, but overall the load is not low. Moreover, Hengli 1#900,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit and Hengli 2#900,000 tons/year unit have been put into production and trial operation in February. After the materials are discharged, the supply of ethylene glycol will increase again, coupled with recent logistics Due to the obstruction, port shipments are not ideal, and the possibility of continued inventory accumulation will increase.
Polyester stocks continue to reach new highs
In 2019, polyester The ester industry has been plagued by high inventory. The average inventory of polyester factories reached a maximum of 24 days. Coupled with the unfavorable destocking market last year, as of the Spring Festival holiday, the inventory of polyester factories was still at a high level. Location.
According to statistics from China Silk City Network in late January, the overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated in 11-20 days; in terms of specific products, POY The inventory lasts until 5-8 days, the FDY inventory lasts around 9-14 days, and the DTY inventory lasts around 16-21 days.
However, after a Spring Festival, the inventory has continued to accumulate. According to the current data, POY inventory has risen to about 16 days, FDY inventory has risen to about 17 days, and DTY inventory has risen to about 17 days. rises to about 28 days.
The price of polyester filament has been declining in 2019. At the end of the year, the price rebounded slightly, but now the inventory of polyester factories is “exploding”. Under high pressure and dragged down by demand, the price focus of various polyester filament products has been reduced. As prices fall, polyester cash flow will be further compressed.
Polyester market inventory is already running low, fortunately Downstream weaving has begun to resume work one after another, and inventory is expected to be alleviated to a certain extent. But we should not be too hasty. Under the influence of the epidemic, it will take some time for the load of weaving factories to increase, and the market will still experience fluctuations.
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