On January 15, China and the United States officially signed the first phase of the economic and trade agreement in Washington, the capital of the United States.
The two sides reached an agreement that the United States will fulfill its commitments to phase out additional tariffs on Chinese products and realize the transition from increased tariffs to reduced tariffs, including Suspend the additional tariffs originally scheduled to be imposed on December 15 last year, and reduce the additional tariff rate on China that took effect on September 1 last year from 15% to 7.5%.
The United States has imposed additional tariffs, and textile companies have been under heavy pressure
Since 2018, the Sino-US trade The news is not uncommon in the world, and every once in a while, they will stand up and occupy the “C position”. Faced with the news of Sino-US trade, textile workers gradually became numb from the excitement at the beginning. There is no other reason, just that I have seen too much.
However, for textile people, the China-China trade dispute has indeed had a great substantive impact. During the visit, textile companies concluded that the market situation this year was not good. When there are good reasons, the most talked about ones are Sino-US trade and overcapacity. From a practical point of view, the export business of almost all textile foreign trade companies to the United States has been “halved” this year compared with previous years, and the export volume has declined by more than 50%.
Will the trade agreement reached between China and the United States have substantial benefits to the textile industry?
This economic and trade agreement is different from previous ones. What is the difference between the two negotiations?
In 2019, the trade relationship between China and the United States has been spent in “fighting and talking.” Although there was a lot of bad news, there was also good news. The heads of state of China and the United States had met and reached consensus, but the subsequent development was not satisfactory.
The same is true for the polyester market. When good news comes out, there is a sharp rise, but then it starts to fall again. And the negotiations are only verbal, and the United States has gone back on its word many times.
Compared with previous negotiations, what is different about this trade agreement?
First of all, we must clearly understand the purpose of the trade war between the United States and China. One is to stimulate the return of manufacturing to the domestic economy, and the other is to contain China’s development. The third is for the presidential election.
In this economic and trade negotiation, the United States has achieved the first goal, but the second goal is that China’s bottom line cannot be reached, and Trump has also It has indeed taken the lead on the third goal, so this trade negotiation is the best condition that both parties can achieve.
Different from the previous oral negotiations, on the one hand, the content of this agreement has been implemented in writing. Between the two major countries, the agreement in black and white is always It will be more effective than verbal promises; on the other hand, the United States has basically got what it wants, and the reduction of tariffs imposed by China and the United States has also been put on the agenda, which is even more visible to textile companies. Substantial benefits.
Tariffs have been reduced, and the textile industry can Bounce?
But at the same time, we have also seen that after the signing of this agreement, the market did not boil as much as imagined.
As far as the polyester industry chain is concerned, the prices of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester filament have not increased significantly, and the production and sales of polyester have not increased significantly. There has been no outbreak, mainly due to three reasons.
First, the agreement was signed close to the Lunar New Year. Polyester factories have stopped production one after another, and a large number of weaving companies have also been on holiday. Even if there are No matter how great the news is, because the textile market has stagnated, the market will not change much. Even if there is a market, it will not really explode until after the Spring Festival holiday.
Second, although the tariff reduction has been included in the plan, it has not been actually implemented. The textile market still has certain doubts about this. The United States’ previous back-and-forth performances have made textile people develop a wait-and-see habit.
Third, this tariff is mainly about US$300 billion of products that were levied with a 15% tariff on September 1 last year, not May 6 The 25% tariff imposed on US$200 billion on May 6 is already unbearable for textile companies. It has turned exports to the United States from non-existent to non-existent, and the increase on September 1 That part is from nothing to nothing. Although it looks scary, the difference is actually not big.
Therefore, for textile companies, although this trade agreement is a good thing, it can only be regarded as a good start and it is difficult to produce immediate results. .
2020 , Sino-US trade will still be the main theme
The time is approaching the Spring Festival, and a large number of textile companies have already gone on holiday. For textile companies, the most anticipated The best thing is to have a good start next year, receive more orders, and make more profits. However, although this Sino-US negotiation has made substantial progress compared with the previous ones, the tax reduction is not enough, and the boost it can bring to the textile industry is limited. Perhaps in the future, as the negotiations between the two parties deepen, it will have a greater promotion effect on textile companies’ exports to the United States. However, judging from the current level, it is still too optimistic to pin the hope of market recovery next year.
It is foreseeable that Sino-US trade will still be the main factor that determines the quality of the textile industry in 2020. But for textile companies, it may be a more practical and immediate approach to strive to improve their technical level and product quality and develop more new markets and new customers.
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