Today is January 1, 2020. The editor first wishes everyone a happy New Year, may you have abundant wealth and all the best in the new year.
2020 has finally arrived in anticipation. I believe everyone must have a lot of expectations for the new year. While looking forward to the future, we might as well review the market conditions on the last day of 2019.
On December 30, Rongsheng Petrochemical announced that the company’s controlled subsidiary Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 40 million tons/year refining and chemical integration project (Phase I) was fully put into operation, and the project refining, aromatics, ethylene and downstream chemicals The equipment and other equipment have been fully put into trial operation, and the entire process has been opened up. Stable operation has been achieved and qualified products have been produced.
Affected by this huge shock, on the 30th, the main 2005 contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange PTA crashed in the night trading, closing at 4980 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.58%!
As of the close on the afternoon of the 31st, PTA still continued its decline. The main PTA 2005 contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed at It closed at 4,972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.74%!
I thought that PTA could hold on for a few days after it reached 5,000 points, but I didn’t expect that it would only take 2 days. , PTA turned its gun around, and its painting style suddenly changed. In the past, PTA suddenly surged strongly, which was full of speculation, but now it can no longer be speculated. In addition to the launch of Rongsheng Petrochemical to hit the PTA market, fundamental problems are also more prominent now.
Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons PTA device is about to discharge
The supply scope will be expanded
Towards the end of the year, PTA manufacturers have begun a wave of device maintenance operations. As of now, many manufacturers have PTA device maintenance plans or have started maintenance:
A 2.25 million-ton PTA unit in the northeast began planned maintenance on December 15, and is tentatively scheduled to maintain it for about 15 days; a 1 million-ton PTA device in the southwest began shutting down for maintenance on December 29, and is tentatively scheduled to maintain it. About 10 days; a 2.25 million ton PTA unit in Yishenghua is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance at the end of December and is expected to last until mid-January; a 1.1 million ton PTA unit in South China is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance at the beginning of January and is expected to last for about two weeks …
Although there is equipment maintenance, the maintenance time is not long, and the impact on the PTA market is not strong and sustainable. At the same time, recently, it was reported that the 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical Line 4 is currently in operation. Half of the production capacity is expected to be discharged this week, and the other half will be discharged before the 10th. PTA futures have been under pressure since Xinfengming’s 2.2 million-ton PTA unit was put into operation. Now that Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5-million-ton PTA unit is on the agenda, the supply will expand and the PTA market will be suppressed again.
PTA production capacity, inventory and load are all at high levels during the year
Destocking is slow
With the commissioning of new equipment, PTA has entered a new round of production expansion cycle, with a large increase in production capacity, and PTA is facing a pattern of oversupply. High inventory has become a drag on the rise in PTA prices. Since November, PTA has been in a slow state of destocking. As of now, PTA social inventory is around 1.36 million tons, which is still close to the high level for the year.
Inventories are high, but PTA manufacturers cannot reduce their burdens at will. As the end of the year approaches, no matter what the demand is, manufacturers It is still necessary to increase horsepower in production. At present, the load of PTA manufacturers remains at about 88%, which is basically at the high level of the year. In fact, judging from the actual data, PTA inventory has been rising for more than a month, and the load has also continued to rise. In the case of insufficient demand, PTA may continue to accumulate inventory. The focus of spot prices will be lowered, and PTA market prices will be difficult to achieve. Boost.
Polyester stocks are low
However, downstream demand is limited, so be cautious in replenishing positions
At a time when weaving manufacturers need to rush and stock up before the end of the year, the raw material polyester There is bound to be a wave of demand for filament, but the production and sales of polyester filament are still sluggish in the recent stage. It is rare to have over 100 market prices and it is a “one-day trip”. It can be seen that although weaving manufacturers have demand, considering all factors, the demand for polyester The purchasing intensity of filament yarn is still relatively cautious, and most of them are purchased on demand.
Although judging from the current inventory of polyester filament, the inventory of polyester filament is close to the low level during the year. Logically speaking, polyester manufacturers will also produce more to prepare for the needs of weaving manufacturers and the demand in the first month of next spring. However, from the perspective of production and sales, the demand from weaving manufacturers is not strong, and polyester manufacturers do not dare to stock more. At the same time, polyester factories will implementThe production restriction and price guarantee plan has also exacerbated the weakening demand for PTA.
The impact on PTA ranges from macro to micro. At present, it is difficult to determine whether PTA has the conditions for a trend decline. We must not only pay attention to factors such as PX and oil prices, and device commissioning, but more importantly, it depends on the situation of downstream demand.
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