On the special holiday of Thanksgiving, a sudden wave of “heat wave” in production and sales, 200%, 180%, 150%… seems to have injected “a hint of warmth” into the recent cold polyester market. “!
The rising popularity of mainstream production and sales of polyester has a negative impact on polyester filament manufacturers , has indeed had a certain effect on reducing inventory; however, for the entire polyester industry chain, it has had little effect.
In fact, this wave of good production and sales is largely due to the preferential promotions of some mainstream polyester manufacturers. In addition, as the end of the month approaches, the enthusiasm for purchasing in the downstream market has increased, and production and sales have increased. There has been a strong rebound from this. But one thing we have to realize is that the sustainability of production and sales is not high, and it is difficult to spread to the upstream polyester raw materials.
As expected, even though the mainstream production and sales of polyester are rising strongly, PTA The futures market is still “green” in a large area. As of the 28th, the main 2001 contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange PTA futures closed at 4726 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day; PTA spot prices followed suit, and the current mainstream quotations are concentrated at 4760 -around 4830 yuan/ton.
As the price of PTA falls, it is not difficult to find that The “high profits” that we were once proud of are also gone forever. Preliminary calculations show that in the past month or so, PTA’s profits have shrunk sharply, falling directly below the profit point, falling into losses, and being knocked to the lowest level for the year.
In this already “cold” situation, In recent days, PTA’s pre-maintenance equipment has gradually entered the restart channel, and the downstream polyester market has gradually started maintenance plans. It is like a bucket of ice water pouring down, causing PTA’s embarrassing situation to become even more “cold wind rustling”!
1. Multiple sets of PTA equipment restarted, supply side Forming a blow
In the recent stage, with the completion of maintenance of multiple sets of PTA devices, coupled with the commissioning of new devices, the PTA market has been hit from the supply side. With the continuous expansion of production capacity, PTA’s strong position in the polyester industry chain is gradually changing. It is understood that last week, the average operating rate of PTA was 83.2%, the real-time operating rate was 80.0%, and the real-time effective operating rate was 86.0%.
As we enter this week, a 2 million-ton PTA unit in South China is gradually heating up and restarting. It was previously shut down for maintenance on the 22nd; in addition, an 800,000-ton PTA unit in East China has also been shut down for maintenance. It has been restarted recently and the data has been released. The device was originally parked nearby for maintenance on November 13. In addition, as for Xinfengming, at the end of October, one of the lines of the 2.2 million tons/year device of Xinfengming Phase 1 was officially put into operation, and the expansion of PTA production capacity officially kicked off; on the 27th, another line of Xinfengming Phase 1 of 110 The 10,000 tons/year plant also started running smoothly. In addition, Zhongtai Petrochemical’s 1.2 million tons/year PTA unit and Hengli Petrochemical’s Phase 4 2.5 million tons/year unit are planned to be put into operation around December 20 and the end of December respectively.
2. The maintenance of equipment of polyester manufacturers is gradually increasing, and the demand is weakening
As the editor mentioned in the previous article, the production capacity of the downstream polyester market this year The expansion is far lower than the growth rate of PTA production capacity. In the early stage, the polyester market maintained a high operating rate, and the overall operating rate of the industry was basically maintained between 85% and 95%, which correspondingly increased the market demand for PTA to a certain extent.
However, the current high operating conditions have placed an increasingly heavy burden on polyester manufacturers. Just recently, China Silk City Network conducted a questionnaire survey. The results showed that some weaving manufacturers chose to suspend production and take holidays in December, while others took the Spring Festival holiday in early January. Compared with last year, most weaving manufacturers took holidays. The plan has been advanced, and it is expected to be approximately 15-30 days ahead of schedule year-on-year. Therefore, various polyester manufacturers have gradually begun to introduce shutdown and maintenance plans during the Spring Festival.
Judging from the current maintenance of the polyester market, starting from this week, polyester manufacturers will gradually increase their maintenance. Recently, some manufacturers such as Yizheng Chemical Fiber and Ningbo Quandi have polyester filament, polyester The short fiber equipment has entered the maintenance stage. In the later period, especially from late December to January, polyester plants have large-scale maintenance plans, such as the Spring Festival parking maintenance plans for many polyester plants in Fujian Baihong, Fujian Jinxing, Xiamen Xianglu, Taicang Shenjiu, Taicang Changle, etc. has been introduced. By then, the start-up of the polyester industry will be significantly reduced, and the demand for PTA will inevitably weaken.
According to the statistical data of China Silk Capital Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in about 12-21 days, and the gray fabrics of weaving manufacturers The inventory is around 38-39 days; high inventory suppresses both polyester manufacturers and weaving manufacturers, which also directly restricts PTA demand. Coupled with the increase in supply, it is even more likely that PTA prices will adjust. Recently, some market participants predict that the new PTA production capacity next year will be as high as 15.3 million tons. Will it bring about a new round of industry fluctuations? </p
