In last Wednesday’s article, the editor conducted a survey on whether weaving companies stock up on raw materials for the New Year. As of November 30 , a total of nearly 300 textile people participated in this survey, from which we can see to a certain extent some expectations of textile people about stocking up on raw materials for the New Year and the overall market next year.
This survey mainly asked two questions. The first question is to predict the price changes of polyester raw materials after the beginning of next year. As a result, 26% of textile people believe that raw material prices will rise after the beginning of next year, 37% of textile people believe that they will fall, and another 37% of textile people believe that raw material prices can remain stable.
It can be seen that there are not many textile people who think that the price of raw materials will increase after the beginning of next year, but there are also not many textile people who think that the price of raw materials will fall. Decisive advantage.
The second question is to understand the company’s strategy for stocking up on raw materials at the end of the year. 48%, nearly half of the textile people choose to stock up on less raw materials, 15% of the textile people choose not to stock up on raw materials, and 30% of the textile people choose not to stock up on raw materials. People choose to wait and see, while only 7% of textile people choose the same plan to stock up on raw materials as in the past.
It can be seen that most textile workers still have plans to stock up on raw materials before the Chinese New Year, but they will reduce the amount of raw materials to reduce their own financial pressure. It also resists the risk of price cuts of raw materials after the start of the new year.
What will happen to the textile market after the beginning of next year? How about that? The editor will make a simple prediction based on the results of this survey and some recent status quo and news.
1. Raw material prices are likely to fall
From the above survey results, we can see that textile people are still more bearish on the price of raw materials next year. In actual operations, the overall stocking market at the end of this year should not be as good as in previous years.
The price of polyester filament is mainly affected by the textile market conditions and the cost and inventory pressure of polyester filament. Let’s not talk about the market situation at the beginning of next year. Now we will focus on both cost and inventory. aspect.
In terms of cost, the price of PTA, the main raw material for polyester yarn, has now reached a low of about 4,700 yuan/ton. Recently, a new round of price has even started due to the instability of international oil prices. of decline. At such a price, PTA has even suffered a small loss; but on the other hand, PX and PTA will have many new devices to be put into production at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, which will make further progress both psychologically and in terms of actual supply and demand. Suppressing the price of PTA, the cost of polyester yarn has room to fall further.
In terms of inventory, the current polyester filament inventory is Around 22 days, it is similar to the highest point before the Chinese New Year last year. However, there is recent news that many weaving factories will choose to take holidays early, and many weaving companies will choose to stock less raw materials. The inventory of polyester factories at the beginning of next year will most likely exceed this year.
To sum up, there is a high probability that polyester prices will fall at the beginning of next year.
2. Sino-US relations are complicated and confusing
Sino-US trade relations are a very important factor affecting the demand for textile products, but Sino-US relations It’s confusing. One moment there’s good news that the tariffs will be cancelled, and the next it’s said that friction between China and the United States has deepened.
Recently, Sino-US relations have been in trouble again, but this time the dispute is not over tariffs. In a sense, it is a “good thing” for textile companies ”, at least you don’t have to worry about tax hikes, and you can’t even buy the few U.S. orders you still have on hand.
In the long run, Sino-US trade friction is part of the game between the two major countries, which involves ideology, international discourse power, international political economy A series of complex issues such as status, etc., it is very difficult to completely eliminate this friction in a short time.
For textile enterprises, what is needed is to maintain an optimistic attitude, produce products step by step, improve their own technical level, open up new sales channels, and do a good job Mental preparation for “fighting a protracted war.”
3. ASEAN and African markets have begun to gain momentum
This year’s Sino-U.S. trade friction has not only brought many adverse effects to China’s textile industry, but has also hit China’s traditional manufacturing industry to a large extent.
In order to cope with this situation, our country has also made a lot of efforts, especially the “One Belt and One Road” plan, which has found a new market for the textile products.
The biggest benefit should be the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) that is expected to be signed next year. This agreement includes the 10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India, covering about 35 countries With a population of 100 million, the total GDP will reach 23 trillion US dollars, accounting for 1/3 of the global total. At present, 15 countries except India have basically reached a consensus. If the agreement is really signed, it will inevitably have another impact on China’s textile industry. A new huge opportunity.
But we must also see that compared with mature markets in Europe and the United States, the textile markets in Southeast Asia and other countries have not yet been fully developed. Development, the local economic development level is not high, and the required products are also different, all of which will pose new challenges to textile people.
4.Notasgoodaspreviousyears,butbetterthanthisyear
Thisyear’smarketisnotasgoodasThisismainlycausedbytworeasons:lowerdemandandovercapacity.Theeditorbelievesthatthesetwofactorswillimprovetoacertainextentnextyearcomparedwiththisyear.
Intermsofdemandreduction,underthebackgroundofSino-UStradefriction,ordersfromtheUnitedStateshavedecreasedsignificantly.However,afterayearofhardwork,textilepeoplehavemoreorlessfoundsomenewchannelsandnewmarketsfortheirproducts.sales.
Intermsofovercapacity,thisyear’sovercapacityismainlyduetoawaveofgoodmarketconditionscausedbytherenovationofwater-jetlooms,whichhasallowedweavingcompaniestoproduceconventionalproductsTheillusionthatsupplyexceedsdemand.Afterthisyear’slessons,inadditiontosomeproductionplansthathavebeenplannedinthepast,weavingcompanieswillinevitablybecomemorecautiouswhenputtingnewproductioncapacityintoproduction.Blindproductionlikelastyearshouldbeunlikelytohappeninthefuture.Ithappened.
Butevenso,the”foundation” left by textile companies this year is still too poor. The excessively high inventory of gray fabrics makes people very worried about the market next year. It is difficult to be overly optimistic. I can only say that the market next year should be slightly better than this year.
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