270%, 300%, 180%, 315%, 150%, 200%…
Wow…the long-lost over 100 market trend appears again La!
On November 20, the trading atmosphere of the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased significantly; mainly driven by the increase in expectations of polyester manufacturers, downstream The purchasing activities of weaving and texturing manufacturers have increased significantly. According to statistics, the production and sales of mainstream polyester factories have climbed strongly to around 140%-150%. This is also the only time in recent months that the market has exceeded 100!
Not only did the mainstream production and sales of the polyester market improve, there was also good news that the upstream crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, with a strong rise!
It is understood that the news that Russia will continue to cooperate with OPEC to reduce production has alleviated the oversupply of oil in the market. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report showing that the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories last week was lower than expected. Crude oil inventories in the Cushing area, where U.S. oil futures are delivered, dropped sharply by nearly 2.3 million barrels, hitting a record high in the week of August 23. The biggest drop since.
Spurred by a series of good news, international crude oil futures prices surged strongly on the 20th and were running at high levels; as of the close of the 20th, light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange The price of crude oil futures rose by US$1.9 to close at US$57.11 per barrel, an increase of 3.44%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in January 2020 rose by US$1.49 to close at US$62.40 per barrel, an increase of 2.45%.
Old rules,
Live up to expectations,
Polyester long The price of silk has increased!
On the 21st, the polyester filament market showed a steady upward trend, and many mainstream manufacturers increased their quotations. For example, the price of polyester yarn from a major mainstream factory in Tongxiang market increased by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester yarn from another factory in Tongxiang increased by 50-100 yuan/ton; the price of FDY products from a factory in Shaoxing increased by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester yarn from another factory in Shaoxing increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. The FDY quotation of the factory increased by 50-100 yuan/ton; the polyester yarn quotation of a factory in Xiaoshan increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the FDY quotation of a factory in Wujiang increased by 50-100 yuan/ton.
All this seems beautiful, but behind it is an “undercurrent”! The key node of the polyester filament market is still concentrated on the ups and downs of downstream demand.
1. The enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers for production may gradually decrease
Although according to data from China Silk City Network, the current operating rates of various textile industry clusters remain stable overall. It is understood that the average operating rate of looms in Shengze is around 80-90%, that of Changxing water-jet looms is around 70-80%, that of warp knitting machines in Changshu and Haining is around 80-90%, and that of Xiaoshao circular looms is around 80-90%. The rate is about 50-60%. However, in the future, as the textile market is unlikely to improve on a large scale, weaving manufacturers are generally under greater pressure to destock. Currently, the inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze is still above 37 days; and as the shipment of autumn and winter clothing fabrics comes to an end, manufacturers Production enthusiasm may gradually decrease.
“Although follow-up orders have not been received in time, we still have to ensure that the factory can start operations. If the orders are still not followed up enough, it means that there is a continuous backlog of gray fabric inventory,” said a Shengze market manufacturer that mainly deals in down jackets and casual wear fabrics. arrive. In this regard, most textile manufacturers express their deep sympathy. Although the market can maintain a stable start-up now, in addition to part of the production factors of order demand, part of it is to retain workers and reduce cost pressures such as rent.
Faced with today’s unsatisfactory textile market, most textile manufacturers will choose “safe” production. The so-called safety mainly refers to the safety of inventory and operations. safety. Under this circumstance, the enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers in the market will gradually decrease as the market goes on. According to previous years’ practice, the order of holidays during the Spring Festival, from weaving – printing and dyeing – finishing manufacturers, is generally the first to stop production and take holidays. During the Chinese New Year, most weaving manufacturers have a production reduction holiday of about one month. Now, most weaving manufacturers may choose to stop production in advance and take holidays before the Spring Festival to relieve inventory pressure. Of course, this also means that the purchase demand for raw materials is reduced to a certain extent.
On the other hand, when the market was good in previous years, weaving manufacturers would stock up on raw materials before the new year to prevent raw material prices from rising after the new year. However, in the current situation where it is difficult to withdraw funds, most weaving manufacturers are significantly less willing to stock up on large quantities before the year, and are more cautious about purchasing raw materials. Currently, most of the raw material purchases are to meet the production needs for the year.
2. “Small batch, multi-batch” orders affect the raw material surface
Judging from this year’s fabric market orders, there is an obvious feature, which is “single variety, large batch” fabric ordering.Orders are relatively lacking, and mostly “small batch, multi-batch” orders dominate. This change in order patterns is reflected on the weaving side, which means that the number of custom-woven fabric products is gradually increasing, which leads to the relative unsaleability of conventional products, reduced demand, and reduced demand for stocking of single varieties. The types of fabrics that manufacturers need to produce have greatly increased. Increase.
Of course, custom-woven fabric products not only require changes in the weaving methods, but more importantly, they put forward higher requirements for the types of raw materials; therefore, weaving manufacturers have higher requirements for raw material procurement. In terms of quantity, the demand for a single variety has declined, while the variety of raw materials has increased accordingly.
From another perspective, innovation has transferred from the fabric side to the raw material side. Especially for weaving manufacturers that produce market products, because the fashion trends and fashion styles of next spring and summer are still unclear, and the hot-selling varieties of fabrics may change at any time, most of them are not willing to invest a large amount of raw material stocking and gray fabric inventory before the year. , most of them will wait and see and dare not rush to stock up on conventional raw materials.
After all, today’s fashion trends change too fast, and the “explosion” of market products usually occurs without any warning, making it difficult to control in advance. Blind stocking may cause inventory pressure. For example, some imitation silk manufacturers blindly stocked more than a million meters of a single product, and the sales were not completed throughout the year; and this year’s suddenly popular T400 product, some printing and dyeing factories produced nearly 200 cylinders overnight. In this case, weaving manufacturers’ demand for raw material products will naturally adjust accordingly.
Therefore, when the weaving market orders are reduced and the stamina is insufficient, the market may take a “holiday” in advance and gather together. Ester manufacturers must always be prepared to respond and should not be blindly optimistic. </p
