As if overnight,
The weather suddenly turned cold,
The editor was shivering from the cold when I woke up this morning!
China Weather Network reported that on November 18, strong cold air In the central and eastern parts of my country, the Northeast, North China, Jiangnan and South China have experienced significant cooling. Especially in the Jiangnan area, the drop generally exceeds 10℃, as if winter has entered overnight.
For the textile autumn and winter market, temperature Change is bound to be an important factor affecting the textile market.
At the 5th Zhejiang Entrepreneurs Conference on November 13, Jack Ma said that clothing sales on Double Eleven this year can be better, just because there are still There is no cooling, winter clothes are not activated.
Now that the cold air is coming and the temperature has finally dropped, will the “last wave of market conditions at the end of the year” that textile people are looking forward to come?
The first of autumn and winter 2019 The wave of market conditions ended earlier than usual
If I were to use one word to describe the prices of raw materials and gray fabrics this year, it would be “fall”.
The price of PTA has dropped from more than 6,100 points at the beginning of the year to about 4,700 points today. Especially since July, it has basically been a kind of “only falling but not rising” ” situation.
The same is true for gray fabrics. The price of conventional gray fabrics has fallen again and again. Last year, the price of 380T nylon silk exceeded 4 yuan/meter, but now it has dropped to just over 2 yuan/meter.
Due to the falling prices of gray fabrics and raw materials, weaving manufacturers are unwilling to stock up on raw materials, and spot traders are unwilling to stock up on gray fabrics. As a result, polyester manufacturers are unwilling to stock up on polyester yarn. The inventory is high, and the weaving manufacturers have an embarrassing situation of high inventory of gray fabrics.
Due to climate reasons, the annual “Double Eleven” is a peak for autumn and winter clothing sales, and it is also a good opportunity for weaving manufacturers to destock, but this year Because the temperature has not yet cooled down, this round of inventory destocking seems a bit ineffective. During the visit, weaving manufacturers generally said that the number of orders in November dropped significantly, and the first wave of market prices for autumn and winter fabrics seemed to “have collapsed before it even started to gain momentum.”
Both volume and price have dropped, and the “main force” in the autumn and winter market has also “lost its chain”
As a matching fabric for autumn and winter clothing fabrics such as down jackets and cotton jackets, gallbladder fabrics are mainly made of conventional fabrics such as pongee, polyester taffeta, and nylon. The annual sales volume across the country reaches billions of meters, making it an important part of the autumn and winter textile market. The key point is that this year’s gallbladder market has “dropped.”
In terms of price, the price of conventional gallbladder has dropped by more than one-third on average. Mr. Wen, the person in charge of a Danbu supermarket in Shengze area, said: “This year’s order volume has been reduced by half compared with last year, and the price has dropped by about 0.7-0.8 yuan/meter compared with the beginning of the year. For example, at the beginning of the year, our 292T polyester taffeta 2.1, and now it only sells for 1.55.”
In terms of sales, the sales of gallbladder cloth this year are almost “cut in half”. Most gallbladder cloth companies this year have Sales volume is down by at least one-third from last year.
This has led to a decline in both volume and price Vicious competition in the market today is very serious. Mr. Yu, the person in charge of a large weaving company, said that his company mainly produces nylon yarn, but due to overcapacity, the market for nylon yarn this year is very poor. Occasionally, if the demand for a product with a specification is slightly better, many companies will rush to produce this product, and the demand will be immediately overwhelmed by the supply.
Under such a background, it is difficult for conventional products to have bright spots. However, there are no good products, and there are many bad products, such as 300T pongee, 380T nylon, and 320T polyester taffeta. Because they are relatively conventional, a large number of weaving companies will produce them when they have no orders. These products are now on the market. The inventory has “skyrocketed”. Once a company’s inventory is too high or its funds are tight, these products will be the first to be sold.
The flowers are similar every year, but the people are different every year
In fact, this year’s market is also somewhat different from last year’s Similarity, China Silk City Network did a related survey on fabrics in autumn and winter last year. The survey found that the market in the second half of last year seemed a bit tepid due to the rapid decline in raw material prices, but in late November it was welcoming. A wave of good news has come.
But what is different from last year is that at this time last year, weaving companies did not have so much inventory, but they had a lot of working capital; in terms of raw materials, , the “low” of PTA in November last year was close to 6,500 yuan/ton, but now it is less than 4,800 yuan/ton; in terms of foreign trade, Sino-US trade has declined sharply this year, and exports to ASEAN and the EU have also shrunk.
So even if the market conditions in November this year and last year appear to be similar on the surface, the pressure on textile workers is not the same.
Middlemen are unwilling to “take over”, and the market becomes demand-led
Under today’s overcapacity situation, the textile market has transformed into a demand-led market.
For weaving companies, due to the lack of market confidence and the lack of middlemen to “take over” the conventional products in stock, they can only bear it themselves. Under the current circumstances, only real demand can Really drive the market.
Today’s cooler weather may be able to drive a wave of sales of autumn and winter clothing and revive the current sluggish textile market.
But at the same time, we must also see that the inventory of conventional products on the market is already astronomical, and a short-term market can only consume one of them. For a small part, only long-term stable demand can bring about a real turnaround. Unfortunately, experts predict that this winter will most likely be a mild one, and it is difficult to be optimistic about the sales prospects of winter down jackets and cotton-padded jackets.
Postscript
The cold air has finally arrived. The temperature dropped by more than 10℃ overnight, which may lead to a wave of winter clothing prices. However, under the pressure caused by the falling prices of raw materials and gray fabrics, weaving companies’ conventional gray fabric inventories are generally high, and the cooling of the market will only bring a drop in the bucket. If you want to truly destock, you need to release continuous demand from the downstream end market, but this is more difficult under the expectation of a warm winter this year.
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