“Hurry up and order 50 tons for me!”
“We want 20 tons first!”
“Bring us 30 tons!”
……
I never expected that in December, weaving manufacturers would be the first to be troubled Yes, it’s not a follow-up market order! Collection of accounts receivable! But should I buy raw materials? Should we stock up?
The polyester industry chain “exploded” instantly, and polyester filament suddenly turned around!
On the evening of December 1, local time in the United States, the heads of state of China and the United States held a meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina; after the meeting, the Chinese economic and trade team The person in charge said that the two heads of state discussed Sino-US economic and trade issues and reached consensus. International oil prices rose in response. The U.S. WTI crude oil January futures market price rose that day, to US$58.36/barrel, an increase of US$0.96; the January Brent crude oil futures price rose to US$63.73/barrel, an increase of US$1.20.
Boosted by this good news, the polyester industry chain was instantly “ignited”, and various products began to rise. The PTA futures spot market rose simultaneously, with the spot price rising sharply to 6,600 yuan/ton; the ethylene glycol electronic market rose sharply, reaching the daily limit for a time, and the spot price followed suit. Of course, the one I am most proud of is polyester filament. When the price is at a low point during the year, it “turns around”. On the 3rd, production and sales exploded. The average production and sales soared, rising sharply to 400%, and the production and sales of some manufacturers even reached 600. % or above the level, and there were even cases of closure and reluctance to sell; subsequently, information on price increases from mainstream manufacturers sprung up like mushrooms after a rain.
A sudden price increase “heat wave”, weaving manufacturers rush to buy the bottom?
Polyester manufacturers are beaming with this unexpected “heat wave” of price increases. Not only have low prices been pushed up, especially the daily average has been the highest this year. Production and sales, the original imminent high inventory pressure, was finally relieved for a short time, and we breathed a sigh of relief. However, downstream weaving manufacturers are in a state of confusion about whether to buy raw materials or not.
Although the raw materials are not speculative products such as stocks and futures, but are the raw materials needed by actual factories, if the price of polyester filament fluctuates significantly, it will really affect the performance of weaving manufacturers. cost. Now that there is a slight rebound after the sharp decline, if you seize this opportunity to buy the bottom, you may be right. In the later period, the price of raw materials will continue to rise, which will also directly reduce the production cost. But if the price falls again in the future, taking action now is equivalent to buying the bottom halfway up the mountain, and the loss will also be real profits. Whether they are looking forward to new lows to buy the bottom, or they are afraid of buying at the peak; textile bosses need to always pay attention to the “turbulence” of all parties.
“When raw materials continued to fall some time ago, and the price was unlikely to rise, we basically adopted the method of buying as you go; because we mainly produce peach skin velvet. Mainly, the raw materials focus on semi-matt DTY. This time, the raw materials suddenly showed an upward trend after falling for more than a month. We sold them when it was time to sell them. On the 3rd, we booked raw materials for nearly half a month. , The raw materials in the factory can be used for more than a month now, and are expected to be used until the Spring Festival.” Manager Wang of Suzhou Junru Textile Co., Ltd. said.
Buying up and not down is in line with the practice of many weaving manufacturers. Manager Chen of Wujiang Biaodun Chemical Fiber Weaving Co., Ltd. also said that there was not much stocking of FDY, DTY and anti-static yarn in the early stage. They were all bought and used according to orders. But this time, when the raw material market showed a rebound trend, we purchased some raw materials that day, although the amount was not very large.
Of course, there are still many weaving manufacturers in the market who are waiting to see what happens. In response to this sudden increase in raw material prices, they have not started stocking up in the short term. Take another look at the situation and continue with the buy-as-you-go approach. The reason is that on the one hand, I am afraid that it is too early to buy the bottom, and I am ready to continue to wait and see. If the market continues to improve, I will consider stocking up. On the other hand, I am considering the circulation of funds. The fund recovery has not yet arrived near the end of the year. So it is relatively cautious.
Do weaving manufacturers still expect to stock up on raw materials before the holiday?
This round of rising volume and price in the polyester filament market has basically come to an end after about a week; in the future, if crude oil and upstream raw materials It can continue to rise, or it may once again boost the rise of polyester prices. As for downstream procurement, according to a survey by China Silk City Network, the weaving manufacturers that choose to take action have already stocked up a certain amount of raw materials, and subsequent purchases will inevitably depend on the market outlook;Manufacturers that currently choose to wait and see cautiously expect that it will be difficult to take action in the short term, but stocking up before the holidays may still be inevitable.
In this regard, Manager Yu of Huifeng Silk Co., Ltd., which has long produced polyester taffeta and Shumei silk linings, said that because the products produced by the factory are relatively fixed, the quality of raw materials is The demand is also relatively stable, mainly for raw materials of FDY50D, 75D, DTY50D, 75D and other specifications. Therefore, when the raw materials increased this time, 1,000 boxes of raw materials were purchased on the same day, which can approximately maintain more than 300 weaving units in the factory. The machine has been used for nearly half a month. In fact, at the end of November, I had already stocked up a batch of raw materials when prices were low. However, it is expected that the factory may have a holiday around mid-to-late January, and there will still be a long period of production time; if there are still raw material price adjustments around New Year’s Day, they may stock up on goods to prepare for production after the Spring Festival.
Manager Qian of Suzhou Yuanyu Textile also believes that according to annual practice, if the subsequent raw materials do not fall sharply, there will be a stocking up of raw materials for about one month before the year. . According to the current order situation in the factory, we basically choose to suspend production around mid-to-late January for a holiday; now we are more wait-and-see about raw materials, but around New Year’s Day, if the raw materials can run smoothly, there will definitely be bulk stockpiling. The specific procurement time is still It depends on the fluctuation of raw material prices.
Of course, there are also some manufacturers on the market that regardless of fluctuations in raw material prices, buy and use as you go, and do not stockpile raw materials. Manager Qi of Jintaishen Textile said that because the price of raw materials fluctuates high and low, and their raw materials are all determined according to order production needs, the specific types of raw materials are not fixed, so to be cautious, most of them will be used as they are bought.
China and the United States As trade friction eases, it is difficult for the weaving market to show results in the short term!
The topic of the easing of the Sino-US trade war is definitely a hot topic in the market in recent times. During the Sino-US trade war, whether it was factories or textile foreign trade companies, due to the increase in taxes, on the one hand, the profits of the companies were extremely low, and they even suffered losses; on the other hand, the friction of the trade war also reduced U.S. orders. . The slowdown in Sino-US trade friction is just a trend, and the temporary truce may be just an intermission; and most weaving manufacturers said that this temporary relaxation will not be immediately reflected in the weaving market, and it has not yet been involved. It will still take a period of transition until specific orders are made.
For the textile market, even if an agreement can be reached within 90 days, do not imagine that Sino-US trade will be peaceful from now on; if there is no agreement after 90 days, tariffs will If the tax is levied to 25%, it will severely hit textile foreign trade companies exporting to the United States. Manager Zhang of Hongliu Textile Technology Co., Ltd. said that if the tax increase is maintained at 10%, it will be acceptable to customers, but if it increases to 25%, customers will choose suppliers in Southeast Asia; if Sino-US trade can really Easing will definitely bring benefits to the textile market in the long run, especially orders exported to the United States, but it is difficult to reflect market orders in the short term.
Generally speaking, with the release of G20 benefits, raw material prices have rebounded from the bottom, and further sharp declines are unlikely; for most weaving manufacturers that produce conventional products, they will purchase appropriate amounts based on capital circulation. raw material. However, if large-scale stockpiling of raw materials is needed, after all, there is still some time before the Spring Festival, and there are too many uncertain factors. Due to the wait-and-see attitude towards the fluctuation of raw materials, stockpiling operations before the year are still cautious in the short term, and market follow-up is slightly weak. . </p
