On December 6, the OPEC+ meeting, which is related to the price trend of crude oil in the next six months, is being held in Vienna. At this critical node, the OPEC+ meeting can be said to carry too many goals. Responsibility and pressure are also key factors in the future direction of oil prices.
As the strongest driving force for the price rebound in this round of polyester industry chain, the trend of international oil prices also means the future direction of PTA and polyester filament. Therefore, this OPEC+ conference will also affect the future trend of PTA and polyester filament. Textile people’s hearts.
Introduction to polyester market this week
Crude oil
So far, international oil prices have experienced a process of rising first and then falling this week. After the G20 summit, international crude oil prices, which had been severely suppressed in November, began to rebound. On December 3, New York oil futures rose 5.7% per barrel to US$53.85 per barrel, the largest increase since June. .
On December 5, international oil prices began to rise initially, and the increase once reached 3%. However, as bad news came during the session, international oil prices began to plummet. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in January 2019 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$0.36 to close at US$52.89 per barrel, a decrease of 0.68%.
PTA
Driven by the expected reduction in crude oil production, this PTA prices began to rise sharply this week. Taking the main PTA 1905 contract as an example, the closing price of the 1905 contract last Friday (November 30) was 5846 points, and by the close of this Thursday (December 6), PTA futures reached 6100 points.
Although Trump’s tweet on December 5 suppressed oil prices, causing the rise of PTA futures to slow down or even slightly correct on December 6, PTA is currently overall Still in an upward channel.
Polyester filament
Since this week, the price of polyester filament It has been rising continuously. In the first few days, the increase was 50-100 yuan/day, which is not a big increase.
However, on December 5, PTA rose by 5% in a single day, which directly caused some polyester manufacturers to suffer losses in terms of profits. Therefore, on the afternoon of December 5, some polyester manufacturers began to The long-awaited supplementary increase.
On December 6, driven by PTA, the price of polyester filament increased, and the increase basically reached 100-200 yuan/ton.
In addition to the price increase, the production and sales of polyester filament have also rebounded. After the production and sales broke out at 400% on December 3, the production and sales in the following days also maintained above 100%. .
Crude oil ignited a fire and ignited the polyester powder keg
In terms of crude oil, since October this year, the price of international crude oil has begun its “roller coaster journey.” In early October, due to U.S. sanctions on Iran and other geopolitical factors, the price of crude oil soared in a short period of time, exceeding $80. At that time, some public opinion believed that the price of crude oil would exceed $100 within the year; then the Khashoggi case broke out, and in ” Under the threat of “Trump’s tweet”, OPEC’s production reduction plan was shelved, causing international oil prices to begin a sharp plunge again, falling as much as 34%. Next came the G20 summit, where Russia and Saudi Arabia expressed plans to jointly reduce production; then Qatar “withdrew” from the group. On December 5, Trump tweeted again to stop the increase in crude oil prices, and news came out from Turkey that it would arrest two Saudis involved in the Khashoggi case.
For several months, international oil prices have been rising and falling due to the game of multiple forces. What will be the final outcome of the OEPC Vienna meeting? Can Trump’s Twitter still be as effective as it once was? What is the final outcome of the Saudi journalist case that has a major impact on international oil prices? The answers to these concerning questions will be revealed in the next few days, and will also directly affect the next trend of international oil prices.
In terms of PTA, PTA has been suppressed for too long recently. Since September, PTA has begun its downward journey. The spot price has dropped from 9,300 yuan/ton on September 3 to 6,135 yuan/ton on November 30, a drop of more than 3,000 yuan/ton. Especially after entering November, PTA futures tried to rise several times, but were ultimately defeated by Trump’s tweets, the crude oil weather vane.
Recently, the G20 Argentina…At the meeting, China and the United States reached a “ceasefire agreement” on trade friction, which will have a good promotion effect on Sino-US textile trade, thus improving the order intake of the downstream weaving market to a certain extent; Russia and Saudi Arabia also have the intention to reduce crude oil production. It will also help reverse the decline in international oil prices since November this year.
The OPEC meeting is about to be held. Many oil-producing countries have expressed their intention to reduce production in the early stage. In addition, on December 3, polyester production and sales hit a year-to-date high of 400%. , so PTA, which had been suppressed for a long time, began to rise sharply this week. Although the downstream also plays a role in fueling the flames, the most important factor for this rise is the upstream oil price. Therefore, what will happen to PTA next depends on the next trend of international oil prices.
In terms of polyester filament, similar to PTA, polyester filament has also been suppressed in recent months. It’s amazing, the price once dropped from the high to the level of the same period last year. Production and sales are also relatively sluggish, hovering between 50% and 70%, while inventory has reached its highest point during the year. In order to reverse the sluggish production and sales, the intermediate polyester factory also planned a wave of production reduction measures. However, unfortunately, as soon as the polyester factory’s production reduction measures were implemented, crude oil began to plummet again, and production and sales recovered only a few days later. Reached the starting point.
After the recent news of crude oil production cuts, the price fluctuations of polyester filament have not been too great, but the long-suppressed production and sales have exploded. At present, the price of polyester yarn is basically following that of PTA. In such a high inventory situation, the main focus is to ensure production and sales.
In terms of downstream weaving, the suspension of Sino-US trade friction is indeed a good thing for textile foreign trade exports, but because The economic fundamentals are good, causing the RMB exchange rate to rise sharply in a short period of time, which makes this news become a negative in the short term. At present, the “Christmas season” has passed, and the time is approaching the end of the year. Due to the problem of capital turnover time, textile foreign trade companies are not so willing to accept new orders at the end of the year. Therefore, some cloth bosses said that the Sino-US trade “ceasefire” will not Bring new orders in the short term.
On the other hand, under the influence of the mentality of “buy up but not down”, many weaving companies have shown their willingness to stock up on raw materials to resist the rise in raw materials. risk.
Editor’s note: After the G20, there is another OPEC meeting. This week, the international oil price has ushered in two important changes. At the turning point, it is still unclear where oil prices will go in the future. However, we must remember the past. The polyester weaving market will be bleak in the second half of the year. We hope that the raw materials will not be as “crazy” as before. Otherwise, it will hurt the downstream weaving industry, and ultimately we will be hurt. . </p
