On December 3 (Monday), the production and sales of the polyester filament market exploded, with the average production and sales rising sharply to around 400%, and the production and sales of some manufacturers even reached 600% or above. Specific production and sales data: 300%, 600%, 400%, 200%, 350%, 320%, 380%, 500%, 470%, 450%, 550%, 420%!
The skyrocketing production and sales are definitely the highest daily average production and sales this year, and the entire gathering became popular almost instantly. Ester market!
Polyester filament manufacturers must have been the first to respond. On that day, some manufacturers’ quotations had a supplementary increase of 50-100 yuan/ton, and some were closed and reluctant to sell.
On the 4th (Tuesday), polyester filament market price increase information They have sprung up like mushrooms after a rain, and most mainstream manufacturers have raised prices ranging from 50 to 200 yuan/ton.
Of course, this wave of polyester The industrial chain’s ability to “turn around and call the shots” is inseparable from the positive support from the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions. On the evening of December 1, local time in the United States, the heads of state of China and the United States met in Buenos Aires, Argentina. After the meeting, the relevant person in charge of the Chinese economic and trade team stated that the two heads of state discussed Sino-US economic and trade issues and reached a consensus. .
After the short-term joy, can the price of polyester filament rise further and recover the early lost ground? Can polyester raw materials PTA and MEG return to their previous highs? Here, I have to think about a few issues!
1. Crude oil price “One thought of heaven, one thought of hell”!
On the first trading day of December, crude oil surged nearly 5%, reaching a maximum of around 53.8. This upward trend was also expected. Only under favorable conditions can oil price bulls counterattack. International oil prices rebounded strongly on the next 3 days (Monday). WTI crude oil January futures closed up US$2.02 (+3.97%) at US$52.95/barrel; Brent crude oil February futures closed at US$2.23 (+3.75%) at US$52.95/barrel. US$61.69/barrel.
We all know that in addition to the relationship between supply and demand, oil prices are often affected by changes in the international political situation and financial speculation. There is a certain degree of uncertainty in the political situation in these regions, which can easily affect the supply of oil. According to the analysis of market experts, this Thursday’s OPEC meeting is a “life and death” decision for crude oil. Crude oil has rebounded from around 50 and has seen signs of stopping the decline. If oil-producing countries make a significant decision to reduce production, Crude oil will rise further; but if the extent of production cuts is lower than expected or no production cuts are made, oil prices will face an “abyss” of decline.
The fluctuations in international oil prices will inevitably affect the market trend of polyester raw materials. Both futures and spot prices will be affected; this will affect polyester filament yarn prices. The market has more or less corresponding effects!
2. Demand is the most critical guiding factor!
For the polyester filament market, demand is the most critical guiding factor! The polyester market has been depressed for more than a month in the early stage. In the final analysis, it is due to weak demand in the downstream market, which has led to the market experiencing a long period of sluggish production and sales, and the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers has subsequently increased. With all the negative news in the market on the 3rd, price increases on the raw material side are imminent. Boosted by a series of positive news, the downstream market has exploded. Weaving manufacturers have begun to purchase raw materials. The market has entered a periodic replenishment stage, and production and sales have increased sharply.
Can the demand in the downstream market continue further? How long will the purchasing actions of weaving manufacturers last? The most important focus is naturally the startup situation of the downstream market. According to statistics from China Silk City Network, since November, the operating rate of the mainstream weaving market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been relatively stable, with the average market operating rate above 60%. Among them, the operating rate of Shengze water-jet looms is around 80%, the operating rate of Changshu warp knitting machines is around 50-70%, the operating rate of Xiaoshao circular knitting machines is around 60%, and the Haining warp knitting machine operating rate is around 60%.The operating rate of the knitting market is 50-60%; the operating rate of Changxing water-jet loom is about 70-80%.
Although from a year-on-year perspective, the overall startup rate of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is slightly lower; if the downstream weaving market can maintain a stable startup status during this period, this will be beneficial to the polyester filament market. It must be a good thing, and market production and sales can move forward steadily even if there is just a need for purchases. However, if the end market demand weakens and the downstream weaving market enters holiday mode in advance, reducing the startup rate, it will inevitably have a blow to raw material procurement.
In any case, I hope this rise is not a short-lived “one-day trip” market and can give the polyester market a chance to breathe! Of course, in the future, Sino-US trade friction, crude oil price trends, polyester raw material surface fluctuations, and downstream weaving start-up conditions all need to be paid close attention to. </p
