This week, most areas such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu have encountered strong fog weather, and many places have issued red fog warnings. Everyone was commuting to and from get off work in a state of confusion, being cautious on the road and unable to see the direction clearly.
Recent polyester market conditions
The recent polyester market conditions are similar to this weather.
Last Friday’s two plunges were like haze blowing from the north, shrouding the entire polyester industry chain in uncertainty. After the routine follow-up, both the upstream and the downstream are confused – should I go up or down next?
PTA article
Anyway, from the editor’s personal point of view, the current PTA is in a state where it wants to rise but dare not. status. Because of the nature of PTA futures, if the fundamentals do not change and you want it to rise, simply put, you have to spend real money on it.
The fundamentals of the current PTA market are not expected to change much. However, after such a setback in November, the profits are a bit unsightly. But once real money is invested, PTA rises, and then something unexpected happens, you will suffer a big loss.
Well, let’s talk about this unexpected situation next – Trump’s Twitter. After so many years, this is the first time I have seen an American president as upright as Trump say anything.
In the case of Khashoggi, I made it clear to Saudi Arabia that if you lower the oil price quickly, I will help you clear your name in international public opinion. I will ask you whether you want to do it or not. Anyway, the cost of Saudi crude oil is low, so it will not suffer a loss if the price is reduced. However, Russia, which is also a major oil producer, will suffer a loss.
Such a background has created a strange situation where Trump immediately drops oil prices when he says they will.
Therefore, although there is a willingness to increase prices, the financial side does not dare to push PTA up significantly, and can only test wildly between rising and not rising.
Polyester filament
The next step is polyester filament. In the first two days of this week, polyester filament prices fell by almost 500 yuan/ton due to crude oil, and then basically stabilized in the next few days. The current situation of Disi can be said to make those who hear it sad and those who listen to it shed tears. The current situation is that profits are very low, production and sales are very low, prices are not high, and inventory is very high.
After the “survival of the fittest” a few years ago, the polyester industry has entered an era of “survival of the fittest”. In the past few years, the bosses have never been so angry. It is simply that uncles can tolerate it but aunts cannot.
Generally, after encountering this kind of situation, polyester manufacturers start to reduce production, but this time they were so lucky: just after the production reduction was completed, Trump tweeted, and then crude oil Plunged. Cutting production is a big move. If it has no effect several times in a row, it will cause huge damage to the pricing power of polyester leaders.
Downstream Weaving
Finally, let’s talk about downstream weaving. There is really nothing to say about the weaving market recently. It is still the same as before. Warm but not hot. Although some companies have begun to increase their orders, for most companies, life is still very difficult. Anyway, this year is basically like this, let’s wait until next year.
Things to pay attention to next week
Will PTA rise?
Whether PTA rises or not mainly depends on oil prices. The G20 summit to be held on November 30 and December 1 may bring an end to this round of oil price fluctuations. After the G20 summit, if oil prices remain unchanged or rise, PTA should rebound to a certain extent. The editor predicts that even if it rebounds, the rebound will not be too large due to supply and demand.
Will polyester filament production be reduced?
Nowadays, the demand for downstream weaving cannot rise, and the production and sales of polyester filament remain at a low level. If this situation continues until the Chinese New Year, polyester stock will skyrocket, which is absolutely unacceptable to polyester manufacturers. Therefore, in order to reduce inventory, it is also possible to reduce some operating loads. However, if you consider whether the weaving market will buy more silk if PTA rises, with the mentality of buying up and not buying down, it is still quite confusing. However, it is not enough to continue to accumulate inventory day by day under the current situation, so we will reduce inventory in the future.The probability of �� is quite high.
Can the weaving market pick up?
It is impossible to get warm again, even in this life. Now the cloth cannot be sold, so I can only survive by drinking tea at a friend’s sales department and collecting receivables. It’s almost the end of the year, and it may be unrealistic to think how good the market will be this year. It’s better to get your money back early and wait for the New Year.
Environmental Protection and Safety Supervision
A very serious haze situation occurred this week. Heavy fog occurred in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. As a red warning signal, more than 12,000 industrial enterprises in Jiangsu have suspended production and restricted production, of which more than 4,000 have stopped production for the whole factory, and a total of more than 4,800 construction sites have been suspended. Come winter, there may be a new round of environmental protection measures, and manufacturers should be careful.
In the early morning of November 28, the death toll from the explosion at a chemical plant in Zhangjiakou reached 23. The tragedy is happening right in front of us. As the end of the year approaches, production safety cannot be relaxed.
When will the thick fog in the market dissipate?
Is there a gust of wind that can blow away the haze?
Please stay calm and wait for the wind to come!
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