Recent news indicates that due to the continued sluggish production and sales of polyester filament since October, some polyester manufacturers have recently increased their efforts to reduce production, involving a production capacity of 2,500 tons/day, and some manufacturers are still planning .
U.S. oil’s “10 consecutive negative days” broke the record, and the entire polyester industry chain plummeted
Since September, whether it is PX, PTA, The prices of both ethylene glycol and polyester filament have fallen sharply to varying degrees. Among them, some polyester filament products have dropped in price by more than 3,000 yuan.
After entering October, the decline of PTA slowed down slightly and began a slow shock downward, while polyester However, filament yarn continues to fall by one to two hundred per day, and the price has gradually reached the same level as the same period last year.
In addition, after entering October, international crude oil prices, which had risen sharply in the early stage, also began to plummet.
Last Friday (November 9), the settlement price of December 2018 West Texas Light Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was US$60.19 per barrel, down US$0.48 from the previous trading day. A decrease of 0.8%, with a trading range of 59.26-60.79 US dollars; the January 2019 Brent crude oil futures settlement price of London Intercontinental Exchange was 70.18 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.47 US dollars, or 0.7%, from the previous trading day. U.S. crude has fallen for ten consecutive days, its longest losing streak since 1984.
As a basic raw material, the continued decline in international crude oil prices has cast a shadow on the trend of the entire polyester industry. A shadow.
Polyester filament: sluggish production and sales, high inventory, compressed profits
October In the future, while prices continue to fall, the production and sales of polyester filament are not optimistic. According to the data monitoring of China Silk City Network, after entering October, except for the three-day replenishment after the National Day and the “one-day production and sales trip” caused by corporate invoicing and other factors at the end of October, the production and sales of polyester manufacturers have basically remained at the same level in the rest of the time. 5-70%.
Under the influence of low production and sales, the inventory of polyester factories is also rising, and the current inventory has almost exceeded At the beginning of the year, it reached the highest level during the year. Considering that the traditional textile peak season in September and October has passed, the downstream weaving market is not as good as expected. If this situation continues, the inventory of polyester factories may exceed the sky during the Chinese New Year.
Because the price of polyester filament fell faster than PTA after October, therefore, the profit of polyester filament It has been significantly reduced.
Production reduction will benefit downstream, but the impact may be limited
As the price of polyester filament continues to fall and inventory continues to accumulate, polyester manufacturers will inevitably take certain measures to deal with it, and it is also expected to reduce production. Once polyester manufacturers reduce production, what impact will it have on downstream industries?
The first thing affected must be the price of polyester filament. The price of polyester filament is generally related to production, sales and inventory. Recently, because of the continued sluggish production and sales, the price of polyester filament has dropped. Down again and again. Once the news of production cuts is confirmed, the oversupply situation of polyester filament will be reversed, and prices will most likely stabilize in a short period of time.
For the downstream weaving market, the stable price of polyester filament has more advantages than disadvantages. Because the price of polyester yarn has been falling recently, downstream weaving companies are also cautious in purchasing goods due to the mentality of buying up rather than buying down. At present, the price of polyester yarn has gradually reached the same level as the same period last year, and enterprises can basically afford such prices. Once the price of polyester filament stabilizes at such a price, it may stimulate the enthusiasm of downstream weaving companies to purchase raw materials. But at the same time, we must also understand that the biggest market trend in the second half of this year has passed. If no special circumstances occur, the number of downstream orders will not be too much for the rest of this year. Therefore, although it is a good thing, the overall boost The effect may be limited.
Editor’s note: In the past month, the production and sales of polyester have been very sluggish, and the price has been falling again and again. It is expected that polyester manufacturers would like to reduce production capacity under such circumstances. However, considering the overall order-taking situation of the downstream, there is currently a lot of inventory in the downstream weaving market, soAfter the production reduction, the production and sales of polyester factories may change, but the purchasing volume of weaving companies may not change much in a short period of time. </p
