Recently, crude oil has set a record for its longest consecutive rise since August last year. Production disruptions in Libya and Canada, coupled with concerns related to last week’s U.S. air strikes in Syria, further pushed oil prices higher. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 1.6% to $53.08 a barrel on Monday, rising for two weeks in a row and hitting a one-month high. Brent crude futures rose 74 cents, or 1.3%, to $55.98 a barrel, their highest level since March 6.
At the same time, a POY market seminar was held in Xiaoshan Hengyi on the 11th. This was the third POY Alliance meeting after the Spring Festival; under the influence of the meeting, the quotation focus of some manufacturers’ POY products on the 11th was around 50-100 yuan/ton. of increase.
The recent “six consecutive rises” in crude oil futures have boosted the polyester market and brought about an increase in the filament market.
Why is the polyester market rising and polyester raw materials stagnant?
The current futures price trends of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol play an important role in the spot market. Affected by the bearish funding factor earlier, the futures side has been depressed. The United States launched a military attack on Syria, causing violent fluctuations in the global market, further suppressing the futures side of polyester raw materials.
While gold and crude oil are rising straight up, domestic commodities and global stock markets are bleak, and capital flight is obvious. The rubber seals the lower limit, the main force of iron blocks reaches the lower limit, and most commodities start plummeting mode. PTA futures and ethylene glycol electronic trading are important types of commodity futures. Although they are supported by the surge in crude oil, they cannot escape the general trend of capital flight.
Polyester filament: Can a good wind reach the top with its strength?
Recently, affected by the continued rise in crude oil, many polyester factories have begun to tentatively increase prices, and the price increase for some specifications is around 100-150. Production and sales have also rebounded significantly, with the average estimate last week being around 160%.
The sudden incident of the US-Syria war once again caused a sharp rise in oil prices, further catalyzing the rise of polyester raw materials, causing the polyester market to break through the “three-day tour”. Now, in addition to the help of the crude oil market, the POY market seminar held in Xiaoshan Hengyi will once again ferment in the industry. Will the price continue in the future?
The author believes that from the perspective of polyester raw materials, as the impact of emergencies subsides, the impact of commodity hedging funds will gradually weaken. Another factor affecting polyester raw materials, oil prices will play an important role, and the cost support effect will be enhanced. From the perspective of supply and demand, Yisheng Petrochemical is still undergoing maintenance, and the market supply is basically stable. Coupled with the recent increase in downstream polyester production and sales, polyester inventory pressure has been reduced, and the fundamentals have gained certain support. On the other hand, PTA futures have been hovering at 5,000 points in recent days. The market sentiment has turned bullish, and there is little room for further decline. The ethylene glycol electronic market has recently been overhauled by many foreign equipment, and the bottom support is obvious. It is expected that the overall polyester raw materials The situation may come from behind. In addition, judging from the recent market fluctuations, the polyester filament market price fluctuations are obviously more strongly affected by the intervention of crude oil. If the crude oil end continues to rebound and the polyester raw material end stabilizes and rebounds, polyester filament will be further boosted.
Secondly, the traditional peak season gold three is not gold, but now it has reached gold four. When the author recently visited the market, I learned that there is a delay in the peak season, and the market order performance has been good recently. Some weaving manufacturers have reported that orders are improving. According to the survey and monitoring of China Silk City Network, in terms of startup rate, the startup rate of water spray and air jet in Shengze area is above 80%, and manufacturers have many orders on hand for production; in terms of inventory, due to This year’s social inventory is relatively low compared with the same period last year, and the market inventory pressure is not obvious, at about 35 days.
In addition, from the fundamentals of polyester filament, after the rebound in production and sales in the past week, the current high inventory situation in polyester factories has eased. According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, the current overall inventory in the polyester market has reached around 15-20 days, which is about 2-3 days lower than the previous period, and is already at a normal inventory level.
All in all, it is still the same sentence. If the downstream demand is sufficient and the polyester raw materials are stable, it will inevitably drive production and sales to push forward the decline of inventory. Then the market will continue to take advantage of the strength. Otherwise, there will still be “three-day tour” after the “three-day tour”. Five-day trip possible!
</p
