With the introduction of vaccines in various countries around the world, the world has gradually entered the post-epidemic era, with growing demand and economic recovery becoming the main theme of the world. Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised their global oil demand forecasts for 2021, although OPEC+ will increase oil production by 350,000 barrels per day in May, 350,000 barrels in June and 441,000 barrels in July. bucket. But as the economy recovers and consumption increases, production still cannot keep up with demand growth, and crude oil inventories will remain low.
Crude oil demand has recovered and prices are expected to rise significantly
According to data released by the IEA, in the past week, the average daily gasoline consumption in the United States Volume rose to 8.9 million barrels, the highest level since August last year. As COVID-19 vaccination accelerates, especially as temperatures rise and summer approaches, Americans will travel more frequently, and their consumption of gasoline and fuel will also continue to increase.
At the same time, continued recovery in demand has accelerated crude oil consumption. Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on the 18th showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 490 million barrels last week, a month-on-month decrease of 5.9 million barrels, exceeding market expectations; U.S. daily average crude oil production last week was 11 million barrels, an increase of 100,000 barrels month-on-month. As the U.S. market gradually recovers, the demand for crude oil has surged. The daily price increases have not kept pace with the increase in consumer demand, and it is natural for inventories to decrease.
According to market forecasts, as the global epidemic situation improves, terminal crude oil demand will further rebound. In the second half of the year, global crude oil inventories will decline at a rate of 2.2 million barrels per day, which will also push the price of Brent crude oil to rise to $74 a barrel or higher. But this is not good news for our textile industry. After all, the price trend of textile raw materials is highly consistent with the rise and fall of crude oil prices.
With the rebound in international oil prices this year, the price of textile raw materials has increased significantly before the Spring Festival. Especially after the Spring Festival, the price of raw materials has soared, and the price has almost exceeded that before the outbreak. Similarly, fabric prices also took the Spring Festival holiday as a watershed, and there was a very obvious price difference. It is very common for fabrics to increase by more than 20% after the year. However, this wave of violent increases is not a good thing for the textile industry. A large number of orders have been canceled and postponed due to high fabric prices. The current international oil price is still hovering around US$65/barrel. Once it rises by US$10/barrel, it will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of a large number of textile raw materials, which also means that the cost of textile fabrics will continue to increase.
The operating rate of weaving and printing and dyeing is low, and the market is difficult to accept it Price increase
The overall demand in the terminal clothing market is average due to the fact that the global economy has not fully recovered and the large inventory caused by last year’s epidemic. The order volume in the textile market is far less than that in the peak seasons of previous years, especially the weaving, printing and dyeing operation rates, which can directly reflect the market conditions.
The weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was one year in the same period in previous years. The highest value among them is basically above 80%, but this year’s 80% startup rate has almost become a ceiling. Except for a few areas, the overall startup rate is hovering around 70%. And the overall operating rate has already ended its rise, falling for two consecutive weeks. The market situation of printing and dyeing is also very similar. In previous years, the operating rate of 100% in March and April has become an insurmountable gap of 90% this year. At present, the overall operating rate of printing and dyeing only fluctuates around 86%.
The start-up status of weaving and printing and dyeing is the best explanation of the current textile market. If the market is like this in the peak season, what performance can we expect from the market in the off-season that follows? In the off-season, when orders decrease, the price of raw materials and fabrics increases, which is bound to be difficult for the market to accept.
Last week, under the pressure of excessive polyester inventory, major polyester factories started promotions at the same time. The lowest promotion range was 200 yuan/ton, while the largest promotion range was 450 yuan/ton. . Under such vigorous promotions by polyester factories, weaving companies that usually buy and use raw materials have also begun to replenish their stocks. The average production and sales on that day exceeded 500%, and some manufacturers even reached 1,000%. Textile people who used to buy up but not down did not wait and see because of the price cuts of raw materials this time, but took action directly. In fact, what they did was right, and the prices of raw materials increased in the following days. It is unlikely that raw material prices will fall again in the future, especially when upstream crude oil costs rise significantly.
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