On April 12, under the pressure of excessive polyester inventory, major polyester factories started promotions at the same time, with promotions ranging from 200 yuan/ton to 450 yuan. /Ton. Under such vigorous promotions by polyester factories, weaving companies that usually buy and use raw materials have also begun to replenish their stocks. The average production and sales on that day exceeded 500%, and some manufacturers even reached 1,000%.
What do weaving companies think of such a vigorous promotion? Are most weaving companies really preparing silk at this time?
Can anyone resist the temptation of low prices?
Since the beginning of 2020, the habits of weaving companies purchasing raw materials have changed dramatically. The original raw material price changes have a certain periodicity – slowly falling in the off-season, rising in the peak season or before the peak season. Although it may not be completely accurate, “old masters” who have been in the textile market for many years can always figure it out. With a little care, you can stock up on enough silk to be used for a period of time at the right time to reduce production costs. However, the fluctuations in raw materials affected by the epidemic in 2020 have caused many “old masters” to stumble. Therefore, more and more weaving companies have chosen to buy and use raw materials when purchasing raw materials.
Faced with the most intense promotion of polyester factories after the Spring Festival in 2021, many weaving companies have indeed chosen to stock up on raw materials, which can be seen from the explosive production and sales. Mr. Lu, the head of a weaving company that mainly produces home textile fabrics, said: “This time the company purchased a month’s worth of raw materials at once, mainly because the promotion was too strong.”
However, not all companies have changed their habits of purchasing raw materials because of promotions. During the survey, the majority of companies did not choose to stock up on raw materials. They were mainly worried that the raw materials had not yet fallen to the bottom. However, because companies that chose to stock up on raw materials purchased The volume is relatively large, so production and sales are relatively high.
Therefore, there are still a large number of weaving companies whose raw material inventories are actually not high. The polyester market still has the potential to explode in the future. However, to know when it will explode, what needs to be considered is the current situation. stages and future trends.
Macro data performed well, but actual transactions were polarized
From a macro data perspective, in the first quarter of this year, the GDP in the first quarter was 24.931 billion yuan. Calculated at comparable prices, it increased by 18.3% year-on-year and 10.3% higher than the first quarter of 2019. %, with an average growth of 5.0% over the two years. In terms of exports, in the first quarter, national textile and apparel exports totaled US$65.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44% (a year-on-year increase of 34% in RMB), and an export volume increase of 15.6% compared with the first quarter of 2019 (the same period before the epidemic).
However, the actual weaving order transactions are not as optimistic as the macro data. There is some two-level differentiation, and the two-level differentiation is related to the products produced. Limited by the technical level of factories and traditional customer groups, at this stage, companies that produce conventional fabrics such as pongee, polyester taffeta, and imitation silk still account for the majority. In previous years, large supply and large demand could achieve a dynamic balance, but now During the 2020 epidemic, excess inventory was produced. During the market wave at the beginning of the year, traders purchased large quantities of low-priced conventional products, and it took some time for companies to digest these products.
Mr. Zhang, the person in charge of a simulated silk weaving company, judged: “The current stage of simulated silk weaving The market is not receiving orders well, and the inventory in the factory is getting higher and higher. It will take some time for the cloth in the hands of traders to be consumed.”
But the functions represented by elastic fabrics The performance of sexual fabrics is completely different. Because the production capacity is relatively low and the cost is relatively high, the inventory on the market is not that large, and the situation of manufacturers receiving orders is much better. Manager Hong, who is mainly engaged in the production and sales of elastic fabrics, said: “The market for elastic fabrics is booming at this stage, and orders can even be received by the end of the year.”
It can be said that although the export performance is good, it is trapped by the With the large amount of inventory accumulated in 2020, the weaving market is still under considerable pressure.
In addition, although the time has arrived in 2021 and the epidemic seems to be far away from China, for textile people, the number of confirmed cases of overseas new coronary pneumonia is still as high as 300,000-500,000 every day. The turmoil of the epidemic will still have a certain impact on orders.
Mr. Lu, who produces home textile fabrics mentioned above, said: “At present, we have indeed received sporadic chargebacks from several overseas markets, but fortunately the number is not large, but it has also caused A certain loss.”
Qian, the person in charge of another textile foreign trade company, said: “Because there is a deposit, I have not encountered any refunds, but many places have been placed at this time in previous years. Old customers who placed orders simply stopped placing orders.”
It can be seen that the “peak season” of weaving enterprises will not really come in a short period of time.
When will the weaving peak season appear?
To achieve the peak season of the weaving market, we need to get the regular products still in stock in the market.The inventory of standard products is exhausted, and the demand in the end market needs to remain strong. A prerequisite for achieving these goals is that the overseas COVID-19 epidemic is basically under control. In other words, the vaccination rate in European and American countries can reach a very high level.
Judging from the survey, most weaving bosses have set their sights on the second half of the year, and this is also a relatively common view of domestic and foreign experts and scholars on epidemic control. I believe that At that time, the “peak season” for the weaving market will truly arrive. By then, most weaving companies will have the confidence to prepare large quantities of silk. </p
